THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 31.6%winner in the projected 1–2–3 65.4%136 races · latest settled day: #1 10/37, top-3 20/37forensic read: #1 28.6% · top-3 60.3% (63)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 49.35% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 4 at halfway, 0.25s off the lead. The measured order tops TRAVIS on 72, 2pts clear of MAXI BOY. TRAVIS: the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — but empties in the final 2f. The shape danger is WAR AND LOVE — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 9
TRAVIS
OR 64 · William Pyle / Geoffrey Harker
MARKET backed 6.2 → 4.7
72.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−The top rating in this field (72.0)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
MAXI BOY
OR 63 · Oisin McSweeney / Fionn McSharry
MARKET 9.2
70.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−Rated #2 in this field (70.0)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
THAPA VC (IRE)
OR 63 · Kevin Stott / Mark Rimell
MARKET drifting 4.6 → 5.3
68FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−2lb below his last winning mark (63 today vs 65)Rated #3 in this field (68)Race-fit — ran 10 days agoA course winner (1 from 6 here)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1WILDE AND DANDYnet +7race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, proven on the going, yard positive in today’s setup − habitually slow away
2TRAVISnet +6figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, quickest early type, energy in the winning band − 5lb+ above last winning mark
3WAR AND LOVEnet +6race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (3 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 8 runners · stalls 1–9
123456789
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–9).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: TRAVIS is 0/6 on softer ground · MAXI BOY is 0/7 on softer ground · THAPA VC (IRE) is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
TRAVISPROMINENT50.1%97.7the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — but empties in the final 2f
THAPA VC (IRE)HELD-UP48.9%102.1the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
MAXI BOYMID49.7%100.3one-paced late — 5th of 8 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
RENEWABLE DREAMPROMINENT50.7%97.8concedes ~1.9L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f
WAR AND LOVEMID49.5%102.1the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
WILDE AND DANDYHELD-UP49.8%101.9the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
BIG APPLE JACKHELD-UP50.7%100.5one-paced late — 4th of 8 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
HAVANA MOJITOPROMINENT51.2%96.7a match for the quickest early, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
TRAVISPROMINENTtypically ~3.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.16s off the field’s best
HAVANA MOJITOPROMINENTtypically ~3.1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.10s off the field’s best
RENEWABLE DREAMPROMINENTtypically ~1.3 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · a beat slow from the stalls (0.28s off the best)
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1TRAVISPROMINENT
DRAW 9 · OR 64 · William Pyle / Geoffrey Harker
MARKET backed 6.2 → 4.7
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
72.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
72.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 81
Official mark (OR)
64 · last won off 59
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 30 tries · in line with the market (1.0)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · best on the clock in its race Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Geoffrey Harker · 169 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 13.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days5/647.8%1.043/1816.7%1.63
In Class 6-7 company1/452.2%0.262/1216.7%1.32
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Above their last winning mark1/323.1%0.360/120.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)3/565.4%0.660/60.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
At Doncaster (small sample)0/90.0%0.00/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 81 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 8
-0.17 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 8
+0.16s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 8
97.7%
One-paced late
Stride length7th of 8
7.34 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
3 Jul 26Beverley7fGd/Frm3rd—40.0 +0.2099.0+0.07—
19 Jun 26Redcar7fGood1stTrue40.1 -0.2299.7+0.39
3 Jun 26Ripon8fGood12thTrue39.5 +0.0594.5—
18 May 26Redcar7fGd/Frm12thTrue40.6 -0.0885.1+0.03
27 Mar 26Newcastle7fStd2ndSlow early38.0 -0.11103.8-0.03
Timed runs 2026-03-27 to 2026-07-03. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (64 today vs 59)The top rating in this field (72.0)Improving fast — last run rated 72, 16pts above his recent average of 56.0Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“led, ridden 2f out, kept on”
#2MAXI BOYMID
DRAW 2 · OR 63 · Oisin McSweeney / Fionn McSharry
MARKET 9.2
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−
70.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
70.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 86
Official mark (OR)
63 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 21 tries
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Fionn McSharry · 109 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 6-7 company5/3315.2%0.961/425.0%2.11
Over 7-8f trips3/427.1%0.741/616.7%1.86
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On turf3/417.3%1.00/100.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days4/4010.0%0.791/911.1%0.66
In fields of 8-116/4413.6%1.02/1612.5%0.81
Too few runners to read reliably
At Doncaster (small sample)0/30.0%0.00/20.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)2/345.9%0.650/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 86 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields7th of 8
-0.22 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 8
+0.16s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 8
100.3%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 8
7.36 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-12-19 to 2026-07-03. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #2 in this field (70.0)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“slowly away, mid-field, lost place over 2f out”
#3THAPA VC (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 3 · OR 63 · Kevin Stott / Mark Rimell
MARKET drifting 4.6 → 5.3
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−
68FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
68 · ranked #3 here · career best 84
Official mark (OR)
63 · last won off 65
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 44 tries · below market expectation (0.94)
Days since last run
10
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield-closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 102.11% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 24 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Mark Rimell · 152 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 9.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 6-7 company2/2010.0%0.84/2218.2%1.7
Coming back after 8 to 14 days1/254.0%0.361/812.5%1.67
On turf6/649.4%0.713/2114.3%1.2
Over 7-8f trips4/616.6%0.753/2711.1%1.19
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Below their last winning mark2/540.0%2.190/70.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)5/4411.4%0.930/60.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
At Doncaster (small sample)1/119.1%0.821/333.3%1.82
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 84 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 8
-0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 8
+0.33s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed2nd of 8
102.1%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length8th of 8
7.18 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jun 26Doncaster7fGd/Frm3rdTrue39.5 -0.10102.6+0.35
1 Jun 26Wolverhampton7fStd4thTrue39.8 +0.18101.1+0.34
12 May 26Bath8fGood3rdTrue38.9 -0.39100.6+0.56
27 Apr 26Bath10fGd/Frm5thTrue38.3 +0.04104.0+0.16
Timed runs 2026-04-27 to 2026-07-08. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
2lb below his last winning mark (63 today vs 65)Rated #3 in this field (68)Lost roughly 2.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 10 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 6 here)Runs Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“steadied start, headway over 2f out, challenged soon after, kept on, clear of rest”
#4WILDE AND DANDYHELD-UP
DRAW 7 · OR 59 · Stevie Donohoe / Ivan Furtado
MARKET backed 6.4 → 5
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
68.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
68.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 74
Official mark (OR)
59 · last won off 59
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 27 tries · below market expectation (0.64)
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 101.86% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ivan Furtado · 952 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Doncaster5/4411.4%2.110/230.0%0.0
In Class 6-7 company37/28313.1%1.417/1166.0%0.62
At this time of year (Q3)22/19311.4%1.33/339.1%0.82
Coming back after 15 to 45 days24/2988.1%1.0211/1676.6%0.85
Too few runners to read reliably
Back at their last winning mark (small sample)2/1216.7%1.550/90.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 74 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 8
+0.44 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 8
+0.56s
Slow away in 6 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed3rd of 8
101.9%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 8
7.74 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-08-30 to 2026-07-02. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Improving fast — last run rated 68, 8pts above his recent average of 60.0Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 10 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.61x market expectation)Lost roughly 1.7 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (2 from 6 here)
LTO comment
“slowly away, held up, headway soon after halfway, chased leader under 2f out, stayed on”
#5BIG APPLE JACKHELD-UP
DRAW 4 · OR 58 · Lewis Chalkley / Michael & David Easterby
MARKET drifting 7.8 → 11
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 1−
67.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
67.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 72
Official mark (OR)
58 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 11 tries
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) Usually races midfield-closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.47% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael & David Easterby · 1227 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.9 on the exchange
Signature angle: keeping the same jockey
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)32/3638.8%0.92/355.7%0.66
Too few runners to read reliably
At Doncaster (small sample)3/466.5%0.751/195.3%0.66
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 73 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 8
+0.01 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 8
+0.33s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 8
100.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 8
7.42 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 Jun 26Pontefract6fGood2nd—38.6 +0.17101.3+0.30—
27 Oct 25Redcar5fGd/Sft10thTrue40.8 +0.0397.9+0.92
7 Oct 25Leicester6fGood7thTrue41.0 -0.6097.3+0.35
Timed runs 2025-10-07 to 2026-06-29. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Improving fast — last run rated 67, 9pts above his recent average of 57.3Stable cold this week — 1 wins from 12 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“in touch, ridden entering straight, stayed on final 1f”
#6HAVANA MOJITOPROMINENT
DRAW 6 · OR 56 · Conor Whiteley / John Gallagher
MARKET drifting 5.4 → 7.4
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
62.7FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
62.7 · ranked #6 here · career best 69
Official mark (OR)
56 · last won off 57
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 24 tries · below market expectation (0.86)
Days since last run
18
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John Gallagher · 282 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)7/907.8%0.760/80.0%0.0
Below their last winning mark2/1910.5%1.221/128.3%0.65
In fields of 8-1112/1259.6%1.093/358.6%0.72
On turf14/1618.7%0.883/407.5%0.76
Too few runners to read reliably
At Doncaster (small sample)0/60.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 69 is below the ~70.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 8
-0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 8
+0.10s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed8th of 8
96.7%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 8
7.44 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Brighton6fGood2ndTrue41.9 -0.1793.1+0.12
22 Jun 26Brighton6fGd/Frm2ndTrue43.3 -0.1598.1+0.18
29 May 26Brighton7fGd/Frm2ndFast early41.6 -1.0396.1+0.17
25 May 26Leicester7fFirm5thTrue41.9 +0.1094.4+0.17
29 Apr 26Bath8fFirm4thTrue39.2 +0.10101.4-0.18
4 Nov 25Lingfield7fStd12thFast early41.9 +0.5996.8+0.13
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-11-04 to 2026-06-30. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Jockey goes well at this track (4.1x market expectation)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, ridden when led 2f out, headed over 1f out, left behind by winner soon after”
#7RENEWABLE DREAMPROMINENTFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 1 · OR 62 · Gianluca Sanna / John Wainwright
MARKET 18
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−
57.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
57.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 72
Official mark (OR)
62 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 7 tries
Days since last run
173
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s) Usually races prominent and weakens
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 173 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John Wainwright · 176 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 8-112/872.3%0.323/2213.6%3.05
In Class 6-7 company3/773.9%0.663/2810.7%2.25
On turf4/1113.6%0.613/2313.0%1.82
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Doncaster0/90.0%0.0—
Over 7-8f trips3/605.0%0.740/140.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)4/646.2%0.821/1100.0%8.48
Coming back after 91 to 180 days (small sample)0/40.0%0.00/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 76 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields8th of 8
-0.36 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 8
+0.28s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 8
97.8%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 8
7.54 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 Jan 26Wolverhampton7fStd9thSlow early38.3 -0.50103.3+0.44
29 Dec 25Newcastle8fStd12thFast early37.7 -0.8094.2+0.32
Timed runs 2025-08-09 to 2026-01-26 · last timed run 173 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Jockey goes well at this track (2.06x market expectation)Lost roughly 2.0 lengths at the start last timeCut 3lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“awkward start, tracked pace, weakened over 1f out, eased”
#8WAR AND LOVEMID
DRAW 5 · OR 62 · Ben Robinson / Brian Ellison
MARKET drifting 18.5 → 55
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−
48.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
48.0 · ranked #8 here · career best 66
Official mark (OR)
62 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 5 tries
Days since last run
12
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.9s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.13% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Brian Ellison · 761 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: off marks of 60 or below
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days15/11513.0%1.331/432.3%0.22
In Class 6-7 company ✦20/19210.4%0.973/486.2%0.55
On turf36/33810.7%1.135/1074.7%0.6
Over 7-8f trips15/1649.1%1.125/766.6%0.76
In fields of 8-1126/26110.0%1.15/855.9%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)27/23611.4%1.232/1118.2%1.95
At Doncaster (small sample)5/3116.1%2.671/128.3%1.42
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 66 is below the ~70.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 8
+0.12 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 8
+0.16s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 8
102.1%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 8
7.43 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Ripon8fGood3rdTrue38.0 -0.16101.2+0.00
20 Jun 26Redcar7fGood9thTrue39.5 +0.17101.0+0.01
4 Feb 25Newcastle8fSlow5thTrue40.0 +0.0099.0+0.14
11 Jan 25Chelmsford City8fSlow2ndTrue—105.2—
3 Jan 25Lingfield8fStd/Slow3rdTrue40.3 +0.49104.2+0.50
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-01-03 to 2026-07-06. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Only 5 runs at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (1.79x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 12 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“chased leaders, weakening when carried left over 1f out”