THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 31.6%winner in the projected 1–2–3 65.4%136 races · latest settled day: #1 10/37, top-3 20/37forensic read: #1 28.6% · top-3 60.3% (63)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 49.0% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 3 at halfway, 0.49s off the lead. The measured order tops ROYAL POETRY (IRE) on 77, 0pts clear of WILLOW WOOD (IRE). ROYAL POETRY (IRE): the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — and holds on late · sharp from the stalls. The shape danger is TAI HANG PEGASUS (USA) — the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
ROYAL POETRY (IRE)
OR 75 · Seamus Cronin / Richard Hannon
MARKET backed 11 → 7
77.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−The top rating in this field (77.0)Historically underestimated by the market
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 6
WILLOW WOOD (IRE)
OR 71 · George Downing / Ed Walker
MARKET drifting 2.5 → 3
77.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−Rated #2 in this field (77.0)Stable in form this week — 6 wins from 18 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.34x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the market
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
TAI HANG PEGASUS (USA)
OR 73 · Stevie Donohoe / Charlie Fellowes
MARKET backed 20 → 11.5
76.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−Rated #3 in this field (76.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.61x market expectation)Race-fit — ran 9 days agoRuns Front — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1ROYAL POETRY (IRE)net +9figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, quickest early type, top-2 speed vs its fields, sharp from the stalls
2WILLOW WOOD (IRE)net +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, energy in the winning band, yard hot, FormLab watch flag − 5lb+ above last winning mark
3TAI HANG PEGASUS (USA)net +7race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, quickest early type, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
THAT DARN CANTOR FIGURE #6
Ed Dunlop's runners on turf win 14.0% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (2 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 5 runners · stalls 1–6
123456
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: ROYAL POETRY (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground · WILLOW WOOD (IRE) is 1/1 on softer ground · TAI HANG PEGASUS (USA) is 0/2 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
ROYAL POETRY (IRE)PROMINENT48.8%102.4the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — and holds on late · sharp from the stalls
TAI HANG PEGASUS (USA)FRONT48.0%111.7the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late
THAT DARN CANTORHELD-UP48.6%104.5a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
WILLOW WOOD (IRE)MID48.6%105.1a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
BOILERMAKER (FR)MID48.6%103.7a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
ROYAL POETRY (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.6 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
TAI HANG PEGASUS (USA)FRONTtypically ~1.6 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.08s off the field’s best
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1ROYAL POETRY (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 5 · OR 75 · Seamus Cronin / Richard Hannon
MARKET backed 11 → 7
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−
77.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
77.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 82
Official mark (OR)
75 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
39
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.0s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 102.37% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard Hannon · 2080 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)56/6678.4%0.819/6214.5%1.28
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=7 ✦61/37516.3%0.9520/12815.6%0.82
Too few runners to read reliably
At Doncaster (small sample)4/449.1%0.795/1926.3%1.82
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 82 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 5
+0.11 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 5
-0.03s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 6
Finish · closing speed5th of 5
102.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 5
6.77 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
9 Jun 26Salisbury9fHeavy2ndFast early35.6 -0.2296.8-0.07
16 May 26Newmarket10fGood7thTrue38.3 -0.4691.7+0.00
3 May 26Salisbury9fGd/Frm2ndTrue38.3 -0.39108.2+0.00
Timed runs 2025-11-26 to 2026-06-09. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
The top rating in this field (77.0)Stable cold this week — 2 wins from 23 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“led, shaken up before final 1f, headed soon after, no extra”
#2WILLOW WOOD (IRE)MID
DRAW 6 · OR 71 · George Downing / Ed Walker
MARKET drifting 2.5 → 3
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−
77.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
77.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 77
Official mark (OR)
71 · last won off 65
Record at today's distance
1 win from 1 tries · beats market expectation (5.3)
Days since last run
44
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.6s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 105.09% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ed Walker · 1100 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 8-16 odds, at this time of year (Q2)
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On turf ✦89/59415.0%1.0336/20217.8%1.26
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=744/20421.6%1.0313/7018.6%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
Over 11f+ trips (small sample)14/9714.4%0.914/1822.2%1.55
At Doncaster (small sample)5/3514.3%0.911/616.7%1.52
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 5
+0.06 mph
About the level of its fields · 37.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 5
+0.18s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 5
105.1%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length4th of 5
6.80 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
4 Jun 26Ffos Las11fGd/Sft1stTrue37.0 -0.04104.9+0.09
Timed runs 2025-09-05 to 2026-06-04. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
6lb above his last winning mark (71 today vs 65)Rated #2 in this field (77.0)Improving fast — last run rated 77, 9pts above his recent average of 67.3Only 1 run at this distanceStable in form this week — 6 wins from 18 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.34x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“in touch, headway to lead over 2f out, drew clear approaching final 1f, comfortably”
#3TAI HANG PEGASUS (USA)FRONT
DRAW 3 · OR 73 · Stevie Donohoe / Charlie Fellowes
MARKET backed 20 → 11.5
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
76.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
76.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 76
Official mark (OR)
73 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
9
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 0.9s · among the slowest in its race Usually races front-runner (cooked late) · clock read is off a superseded run
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Charlie Fellowes · 551 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=717/9418.1%0.884/2714.8%1.27
In Class 4-5 company30/27510.9%0.858/6412.5%1.23
At this time of year (Q3)27/17815.2%1.122/1315.4%1.22
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 11f+ trips6/619.8%0.520/110.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 8 to 14 days (small sample)3/2711.1%0.861/520.0%3.42
At Doncaster (small sample)1/205.0%0.620/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 5
-0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 5
+0.08s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 5
111.7%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 5
6.81 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
18 Jun 26Lingfield10fGood6thFast early40.5 -0.77112.1+0.10
20 Oct 25Bath8fSoft3rdTrue38.0 +0.0598.3+0.10
18 Sep 25Yarmouth9fGd/Sft3rd—38.4 +0.33106.7+0.06
Timed runs 2025-09-18 to 2026-07-09. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #3 in this field (76.0)Only 1 run at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (1.61x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 9 days agoRuns Front — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“fourth, shaken up under 3f out, stayed on final 1f”
#4BOILERMAKER (FR)MID
DRAW 1 · OR 66 · Lewis Edmunds / Harry Charlton
MARKET backed 3.35 → 2.26
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
74.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
74.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 74
Official mark (OR)
66 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
29
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 103.65% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Harry Charlton · 556 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company ✦39/28413.7%0.854/656.2%0.4
At this time of year (Q3)28/20313.8%0.812/1910.5%0.71
In fields of <=7 ✦23/11320.4%0.865/3315.2%0.76
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦39/24815.7%0.868/5514.5%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
At Doncaster (small sample)2/1020.0%1.141/812.5%0.79
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 75 is below the ~80.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 5
+0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 5
+0.24s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 5
103.7%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 5
7.05 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
19 Jun 26Goodwood11fGood3rd—38.1 +0.51107.0+0.00
16 May 26Thirsk12fGood2ndSlow early39.3 +0.14107.3+0.07
Timed runs 2025-09-12 to 2026-06-19. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Only 2 runs at this distanceNEARLY WON LTO — traded 2.0 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, headway 2f out, stayed on, clear of rest”
#5THAT DARN CANTORHELD-UP
DRAW 2 · OR 71 · Sam James / Ed Dunlop
MARKET drifting 26 → 120
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−
58.7FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
58.7 · ranked #6 here · career best 71
Official mark (OR)
71 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
45
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.2s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races held-up (one-paced)
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 104.54% (strong late)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ed Dunlop · 893 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)33/27612.0%1.123/2114.3%1.43
In fields of <=7 ✦33/16719.8%1.1910/3826.3%1.23
On turf ✦41/37510.9%1.0414/10014.0%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days43/35212.2%1.156/787.7%0.71
In Class 4-5 company ✦45/44210.2%0.9610/9111.0%0.84
Too few runners to read reliably
At Doncaster (small sample)6/2821.4%2.350/60.0%0.0
Over 11f+ trips (small sample)18/13912.9%1.12/1513.3%0.8
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 71 is below the ~80.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 5
-0.81 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 5
+0.23s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 5
104.5%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 5
7.27 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
3 Jun 26Nottingham10fGood6thTrue37.2 -0.97104.2+0.07
Timed runs 2026-04-08 to 2026-06-03. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina question
LTO comment
“waited with, hung left early in straight, shaken up 3f out, weakened under 2f out, eased”