THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 31.6%winner in the projected 1–2–3 65.4%136 races · latest settled day: #1 10/37, top-3 20/37forensic read: #1 28.6% · top-3 60.3% (63)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
AURA CHAMPAGNE (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 48.64% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 4 at halfway, 0.45s off the lead. The measured order tops MISS SCOTT (IRE) on 90, 6pts clear of MANAAR (IRE). MISS SCOTT (IRE): a genuine turn of foot — 5th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The shape danger is MANAAR (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
MISS SCOTT (IRE)
OR · William Buick / John & Thady Gosden
MARKET 1.94
90.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 1−The top rating in this field (90.0)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
MANAAR (IRE)
OR · Tom Marquand / William Haggas
MARKET 2.36
84.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−Rated #2 in this field (84.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.38x market expectation)A course winner (1 from 1 here)
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
AURA CHAMPAGNE (IRE)
OR · Sean Levey / Richard Hannon
MARKET drifting 13 → 23
77.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−figure earned over 7.0f, not today's distance — never rated near today's trip (untested here)Rated #3 in this field (77.0)Runs Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1MISS SCOTT (IRE)net +8figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot
2MANAAR (IRE)net +6figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, yard positive in today’s setup
3AURA CHAMPAGNE (IRE)net +4form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here − sectional profile stale
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
AUNT ROBERTA (IRE) FIGURE #4
George Scott's runners coming back after 15 to 45 days win 26.2% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. George Scott's runners at this time of year (Q3) win 22.2% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
SCARLET LETTER (IRE) FIGURE #5
David Menuisier's runners on turf win 16.9% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 5 runners · stalls 1–5
12345
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: MISS SCOTT (IRE) is 1/2 on softer ground · MANAAR (IRE) is 1/1 on softer ground · AURA CHAMPAGNE (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
MANAAR (IRE)MID47.3%109.0the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
MISS SCOTT (IRE)MID48.3%105.7a genuine turn of foot — 5th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
AUNT ROBERTA (IRE)HELD-UP48.6%106.5a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
AURA CHAMPAGNE (IRE)PROMINENT47.8%106.5the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late · sharp from the stalls
SCARLET LETTER (IRE)HELD-UP47.1%108.2a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
AURA CHAMPAGNE (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
AURA CHAMPAGNE (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1MISS SCOTT (IRE)MID
DRAW 3 · OR · William Buick / John & Thady Gosden
MARKET 1.94
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 1−
90.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
90.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 90
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
37
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 105.69% (strong late)
Recent form · last 2 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John & Thady Gosden · 1244 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days99/47520.8%1.0422/10221.6%0.85
Too few runners to read reliably
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)72/36519.7%0.9610/1952.6%2.06
At Newbury (small sample)5/559.1%0.594/1921.1%0.85
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 90 at/around today's trip, clears the ~84.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 5
+0.62 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.0 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 5
+0.31s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 5
105.7%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 5
7.44 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-09-22 to 2026-06-11. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 2 todayThe top rating in this field (90.0)Only 1 run at this distanceNEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.06 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Sectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“tracked pace, shaken up 2f out, led over 1f out, headed inside final 1f, kept on”
#2MANAAR (IRE)MID
DRAW 1 · OR · Tom Marquand / William Haggas
MARKET 2.36
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
84.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
84.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 84
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 1 tries · beats market expectation (10.8)
Days since last run
37
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 108.97% (strong late)
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 4 · 9.0f · rated 84
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
William Haggas · 1576 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Cieren Fallon
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)134/54924.4%1.126/4912.2%0.56
At Newbury21/9123.1%1.193/2412.5%0.78
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦138/63321.8%0.9827/15217.8%0.85
In fields of <=7 ✦94/35226.7%0.9125/10623.6%0.85
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 84 at/around today's trip, clears the ~84.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 5
+0.61 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.0 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 5
+0.19s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 5
109.0%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 5
7.40 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jun 26Newbury9fGd/Sft1st—39.0 +0.61109.0+0.19
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-06-11 to 2026-06-11. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 2 todayRated #2 in this field (84.0)Only 1 run at this distanceStable cold this week — 2 wins from 21 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.38x market expectation)A course winner (1 from 1 here)
LTO comment
“in touch, shaken up over 2f out, headway approaching final 1f, led inside final 1f, ran on”
#3AURA CHAMPAGNE (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 2 · OR · Sean Levey / Richard Hannon
MARKET drifting 13 → 23
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−
77.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
77.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 77 · earned over 7.0f — never rated near today's distance (untested here)
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
302
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 106.45% (strong late)
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 2 · 7.0f · rated 77
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard Hannon · 2080 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Newbury17/16310.4%1.127/5712.3%1.51
At this time of year (Q3)56/6678.4%0.819/6214.5%1.28
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 9-10f trips31/16319.0%1.546/708.6%0.75
Coming back after 180 days+6/5910.2%0.964/3511.4%0.8
In fields of <=7 ✦61/37516.3%0.9520/12815.6%0.82
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 77 is below the ~84.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 5
-0.29 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.8 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph1st of 5
+0.00s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 1 of 1
Finish · closing speed4th of 5
106.5%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length5th of 5
6.61 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.13slow2f+0.13very slow3f+0.07very slow4f+0.03fast5f+0.08very fast6f+0.09very fast7f+0.14very fast
Timed runs 2025-09-19 to 2025-09-19 · last timed run 302 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #3 in this field (77.0)Rating earned over 7.0f, not today's distance — never rated near today's trip (untested at this distance)Stable cold this week — 2 wins from 23 runsReturns from 302 days offRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“close up, led over 2f out, headed inside final 1f, not quicken late on”
#4AUNT ROBERTA (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 5 · OR · Darragh Keenan / George Scott
MARKET drifting 44 → 75
Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−
62.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
62.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 62
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
37
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 106.47% (strong late)
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 4 · 9.0f · rated 62
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
George Scott · 692 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 1-3 company12/1418.5%0.939/5018.0%1.48
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦40/24816.1%1.1616/6126.2%1.42
Over 9-10f trips8/4517.8%0.972/1513.3%1.31
On turf ✦54/34815.5%1.1822/10720.6%1.23
In fields of <=7 ✦31/14321.7%1.0217/5630.4%1.17
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newbury (small sample)1/128.3%1.491/616.7%2.53
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 62 is below the ~84.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 5
+0.12 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.5 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph4th of 5
+0.36s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 5
106.5%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 5
7.39 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jun 26Newbury9fGd/Sft6th—38.5 +0.12106.5+0.36
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David Menuisier · 492 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 9-10f trips ✦17/9717.5%1.369/4918.4%1.61
On turf ✦33/25213.1%1.0913/7716.9%1.42
In fields of <=717/8919.1%1.26/3417.6%1.25
In Class 1-3 company12/1339.0%0.843/427.1%1.17
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)4/488.3%0.760/40.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)23/15414.9%1.240/90.0%0.0
At Newbury (small sample)4/2615.4%1.191/520.0%1.91
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 61 is below the ~84.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 5
-0.40 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.0 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph5th of 5
+0.50s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 5
108.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length4th of 5
6.95 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 May 26Lingfield10fGood4thTrue39.0 -0.30107.6+0.35
2 Oct 25Nottingham8fGd/Sft6thSlow early37.7 -0.50108.7+0.65
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-10-02 to 2026-05-26. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Only 1 run at this distanceRun-style and sectional profile are mismatched to how this course & distance is won