THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 31.6%winner in the projected 1–2–3 65.4%136 races · latest settled day: #1 10/37, top-3 20/37forensic read: #1 28.6% · top-3 60.3% (63)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 49.84% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 3 at halfway, 0.17s off the lead. The measured order tops ALL MOONSHINE on 86, 1pts clear of LIGHTNING POLKA. ALL MOONSHINE: just behind the quickest early pair — presses, without over-committing — and finds plenty late. The shape danger is NEW VEGA — the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
ALL MOONSHINE
OR 87 · Jason Watson / Andrew Balding
MARKET 3.9
86FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−Drops in class todayThe top rating in this field (86)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
LIGHTNING POLKA
OR 80 · Kieran Shoemark / Ed Walker
MARKET 4.5
85.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayRated #2 in this field (85.0)Stable in form this week — 6 wins from 18 runs
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
TAVANA
OR 84 · Sean Levey / Edward Smyth-Osbourne
MARKET 6.8
84.7FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (84.7)Historically underestimated by the market
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1ALL MOONSHINEnet +8figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, runs the dominant winning style here − 5lb+ above last winning mark
2LIGHTNING POLKAnet +6figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot
3TAVANAnet +6drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), energy in the winning band, proven at trip, proven on the going, yard positive in today’s setup
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
NEW VEGA FIGURE #6
Simon's runners stepping up in class win 27.0% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. won last time out, and Simon is among the in-form yards this fortnight (25 runs).
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (2 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–6
123456
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–6).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: ALL MOONSHINE is unraced on softer ground · LIGHTNING POLKA is 1/3 on softer ground · TAVANA is 2/4 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
ALL MOONSHINEPROMINENT47.9%104.7just behind the quickest early pair — presses, without over-committing — and finds plenty late
NEW VEGAMID49.4%101.7the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
TAVANAMID50.2%100.6solid late gains (5th of 6 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
BRISK SYMPHONY (IRE)MID50.0%101.3the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
LIGHTNING POLKAMID50.6%100.6solid late gains (4th of 6 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
VELVET RHYTHMPROMINENT51.2%98.5the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
VELVET RHYTHMPROMINENTtypically ~2.5 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.07s off the field’s best
ALL MOONSHINEPROMINENTtypically ~1.8 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.13s off the field’s best
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1ALL MOONSHINEPROMINENT
DRAW 2 · OR 87 · Jason Watson / Andrew Balding
MARKET 3.9
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
86FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
86 · ranked #1 here · career best 92
Official mark (OR)
87 · last won off 80
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 5 tries · beats market expectation (3.11)
Days since last run
31
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.1s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races front-runner
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 104.67% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Andrew Balding · 2425 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, at Newcastle, jockey_named P. J. McDonald, off a steady mark, dropping in trip
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark ✦49/28917.0%1.0522/9622.9%1.27
Over 7-8f trips ✦129/75417.1%1.0548/21322.5%1.24
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦199/104919.0%1.1267/28623.4%1.2
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Newbury21/9522.1%1.473/319.7%0.65
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 92 at/around today's trip, clears the ~85.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 6
+0.43 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 6
+0.13s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 6
104.7%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 6
7.37 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Jun 26Ascot8fGd/Frm15thTrue38.4 -0.6097.2+0.05
11 Feb 26Kempton Park8fSlow1stTrue39.6 +0.01106.0+0.03
12 Jan 26Wolverhampton7fStd1stSlow early39.5 +0.80106.0+0.05
28 Dec 25Southwell7fStd1stTrue39.8 +1.15105.4+0.22
26 Nov 25Newcastle7fSlow3rdSlow early41.0 +0.78108.8+0.28
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-11-26 to 2026-06-17. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
7lb above his last winning mark (87 today vs 80)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (86)Only 5 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 4 wins from 26 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led group, ridden 2f out, no extra final ½f”
#2LIGHTNING POLKAMID
DRAW 3 · OR 80 · Kieran Shoemark / Ed Walker
MARKET 4.5
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
85.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
85.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 85
Official mark (OR)
80 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 6 tries · below market expectation (0.93)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.6% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ed Walker · 1100 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 8-16 odds, at this time of year (Q2)
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 1-3 company31/28710.8%1.015/9915.2%1.62
On turf ✦89/59415.0%1.0336/20217.8%1.26
Over 7-8f trips52/41412.6%0.9826/13818.8%1.22
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=744/20421.6%1.0313/7018.6%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 8 to 14 days (small sample)6/4712.8%0.962/1020.0%1.56
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 85 at/around today's trip, clears the ~85.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 6
+0.17 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 6
+0.17s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 6
100.6%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 6
7.26 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-09-05 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayRated #2 in this field (85.0)Improving fast — last run rated 85, 10pts above his recent average of 74.7Stable in form this week — 6 wins from 18 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“dwelt, held up, pushed along over 3f out, stayed on”
#3TAVANAMID
DRAW 1 · OR 84 · Sean Levey / Edward Smyth-Osbourne
MARKET 6.8
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−
84.7FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
84.7 · ranked #3 here · career best 88
Official mark (OR)
84 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 7 tries · beats market expectation (6.37)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.1s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.56% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Edward Smyth-Osbourne · 129 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 11.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 1-3 company2/1513.3%1.790/40.0%0.0
At Newbury1/520.0%2.360/40.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)6/4314.0%1.70/50.0%0.0
On turf7/4316.3%1.760/270.0%0.0
In fields of <=74/1428.6%1.870/60.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 8 to 14 days (small sample)0/30.0%0.00/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 91 at/around today's trip, clears the ~85.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 6
+0.21 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 6
+0.11s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 6
100.6%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 6
7.14 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-07-24 to 2026-07-04. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (84.7)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 2 here)
LTO comment
“waited with, headway when had to wait for gap under 2f out, ridden entering final 1f, not sustain effort”
#4BRISK SYMPHONY (IRE)MID
DRAW 5 · OR 83 · Rob Hornby / Jonathan Portman
MARKET 10
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 1−
83.7FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
83.7 · ranked #4 here · career best 87
Official mark (OR)
83 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 7 tries · beats market expectation (2.37)
Days since last run
22
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s) · among the slowest in its race Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 101.31% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jonathan Portman · 638 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.9 on the exchange
Signature angle: at this time of year (Q2)
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 1-3 company9/7811.5%1.551/205.0%0.49
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newbury (small sample)5/4311.6%1.82/1118.2%2.27
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 89 at/around today's trip, clears the ~85.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 6
+0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 6
+0.01s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 6
101.3%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length3rd of 6
7.26 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 Jun 26Newmarket6fGd/Frm7thTrue41.1 -0.3098.5+0.06
12 May 26Lingfield7fStd2ndTrue40.9 +0.78103.4-0.07
Timed runs 2025-07-10 to 2026-06-26. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 1 here)Sectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“led 1f, close up, outpaced over 1f out, ridden 1f out, kept on”
#5VELVET RHYTHMPROMINENT
DRAW 6 · OR 77 · Saffie Osborne / Charlie Johnston
MARKET 5.9
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−
82.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
82.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 82
Official mark (OR)
77 · last won off 72
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 9 tries · beats market expectation (1.91)
Days since last run
10
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.3s · best on the clock in its race Usually races front-runner · clock read is off a superseded run
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Charlie Johnston · 2312 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: with the mark MARK-FALLING3+
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 1-3 company ✦41/5227.9%0.812/1517.9%0.74
Above their last winning mark ✦58/48811.9%0.8820/17011.8%0.81
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newbury (small sample)2/922.2%2.311/520.0%0.89
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 82 is below the ~85.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 6
+0.17 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 6
+0.07s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 6
98.5%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 6
7.35 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
22 Jun 26Catterick Bridge7fFirm1stSlow early40.6 +0.19104.0+0.45
15 Jun 26Carlisle6fGood8thFast early38.6 +0.3792.8+0.02
30 May 26Lingfield7fGd/Frm4thTrue41.0 -0.01102.0+0.00
21 May 26Catterick Bridge7fGood1st—41.0 +0.0095.3+0.00
2 May 26Newmarket7fGd/Frm1stFast early40.4 +0.4296.2-0.18
Timed runs 2026-05-02 to 2026-07-08. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (77 today vs 72)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayImproving fast — last run rated 82, 10pts above his recent average of 71.7Proven over the trip (9 tries, beats market expectation at 1.91)Stable cold this week — 2 wins from 25 runsRace-fit — ran 10 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“chased leader, led under 1f out”
#6NEW VEGAMID
DRAW 4 · OR 92 · Rossa Ryan / Simon & Ed Crisford
MARKET 9.4
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−
79.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
79.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 79
Official mark (OR)
92 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 2 tries · beats market expectation (1.13)
Days since last run
350
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) Usually races front-runner
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 101.67% (holds late)
Recent form · last 2 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 350 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Simon & Ed Crisford · 866 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.9 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 1-3 company30/23612.7%0.9212/7316.4%1.43
At this time of year (Q3)59/29120.3%1.166/3020.0%1.31
In fields of <=742/18123.2%0.8912/5721.1%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 180 days+4/2913.8%0.941/185.6%0.43
Over 7-8f trips ✦45/29615.2%0.947/6810.3%0.67
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newbury (small sample)1/234.3%0.390/90.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 79 is below the ~85.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 6
+0.47 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.7 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph1st of 6
+0.00s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 1 of 1
Finish · closing speed2nd of 6
101.7%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 6
6.96 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
2 Aug 25Doncaster7fGd/Frm1stTrue39.6 +0.42101.2-0.02
Timed runs 2025-07-12 to 2025-08-02 · last timed run 350 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 3 todayOnly 2 runs at this distanceReturns from 350 days offSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance