FORMLAB Race Report — Newmarket 16:52

FORMLAB RACING

THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Newmarket · 16:52

Class 5 · 10f · Good to Firm

GENERATED 2026-07-18 · 6 RUNNERS PROFILED

THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 31.6%winner in the projected 1–2–3 65.4%136 races · latest settled day: #1 10/37, top-3 20/37forensic read: #1 28.6% · top-3 60.3% (63)

The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW

PIPILY is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 49.36% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 3 at halfway, 0.3s off the lead. The measured order tops ZIGGY'S AVENGER on 73, 1pts clear of JOHN HARRISON. ZIGGY'S AVENGER: a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The shape danger is FLAG OF EVA — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.

MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE

The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3

1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 1

ZIGGY'S AVENGER

OR 69 · Hector Crouch / Michael Bell

MARKET 7.6

73 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−The top rating in this field (73)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market

2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 4

JOHN HARRISON

OR 63 · David Probert / Alan King

MARKET drifting 3.9 → 5.8

72.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−Rated #2 in this field (72.0)

3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 6

MADJID

OR 64 · Cieren Fallon / Harry Charlton

MARKET backed 4.9 → 3.5

67 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−Rated #3 in this field (67)

The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY

1ZIGGY'S AVENGERnet +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 speed vs its fields, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, yard positive in today’s setup

2JOHN HARRISONnet +5figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, energy in the winning band, yard positive in today’s setup − figure earned on another surface

3PIPILYnet +5race-fit (ran <=45d), top-2 speed vs its fields, sharp from the stalls, runs the dominant winning style here, yard positive in today’s setup

EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD

Race ShapePACE × FINISH

one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.

Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–6

123456

Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 2.0 of 6, field average 3.5).

If the ground changes

Should it turn softer: ZIGGY'S AVENGER is 0/1 on softer ground · JOHN HARRISON is 0/1 on softer ground · MADJID is 0/4 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).

RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup

ZIGGY'S AVENGER HELD-UP 48.9% 104.2 a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

FLAG OF EVA MID 47.0% 108.4 the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it

MADJID MID 48.2% 104.2 a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it

JOHN HARRISON MID 48.9% 101.1 solid late gains (5th of 6 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

PIPILY FRONT 50.5% 99.9 the only measured early speed in the race, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls

MOON WARP HELD-UP 48.8% 103.3 a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

The early fight · measured

Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.

PIPILYFRONTtypically ~2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest

PIPILY is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.

The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER

#1 ZIGGY'S AVENGER HELD-UP

DRAW 1 · OR 69 · Hector Crouch / Michael Bell

MARKET 7.6

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−

73 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

73 · ranked #1 here · career best 74

Official mark (OR)

69 · last won off 65

Record at today's distance

untried at this distance

Days since last run

33

Sectional clock

Last time: beat the class par by 0.8s · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 104.15% (strong late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

5thClass 5 · 8.1f · rated 721stClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 743rdClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 738thClass 4 · 8.0f · rated 6510thClass 4 · 8.1f · rated 43

Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time

Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Michael Bell · 844 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange

Signature angle: jockey_named Hector Crouch, with the retained rider up

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Above their last winning mark26/15416.9%0.9712/4129.3%1.25

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

On turf57/42313.5%1.0712/1229.8%0.71

Coming back after 15 to 45 days49/34214.3%1.0710/8411.9%0.77

Too few runners to read reliably

At Newmarket (small sample)6/4015.0%1.780/100.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 74 at/around today's trip, clears the ~72.0 demand

Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields1st of 6

-0.05 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph2nd of 6

+0.01s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed3rd of 6

104.2%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length3rd of 6

7.11 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

15 Jun 26Windsor8fGd/Frm5th—40.6 +0.12109.2-0.18—

3 Jun 26Ripon8fGood1stTrue39.2 +0.40105.3—

20 May 26Kempton Park8fSlow3rdTrue38.6 -0.13102.3+0.14

30 Apr 26Yarmouth8fGd/Frm8thTrue39.8 -0.16102.3-0.03

15 Apr 26Southwell8fStd10thTrue38.0 -0.49101.6+0.12

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f—par2f—par3f—par4f—slow5f—par6f—par7f—fast1m—par

Timed runs 2026-04-15 to 2026-06-15. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

4lb above his last winning mark (69 today vs 65)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (73)NEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.76 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market

LTO comment

“tracked pace, ridden 2f out, hung right over 1f out, short of room final 1f, not quicken”

#2 JOHN HARRISON MID

DRAW 4 · OR 63 · David Probert / Alan King

MARKET drifting 3.9 → 5.8

Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−

72.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

72.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 72

Official mark (OR)

63 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

untried at this distance

Days since last run

18

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.3s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 101.09% (holds late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

3rdClass 5 · 8.0f · rated 724thClass 5 · 8.0f · rated 652ndClass 5 · 7.1f · rated 588thClass 4 · 7.1f · rated 5611thClass 4 · 8.0f · rated 27

Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Alan King · 361 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In fields of <=710/6615.2%0.944/1921.1%1.57

On turf ✦25/18313.7%1.198/4617.4%1.32

Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦26/15516.8%1.266/3716.2%1.18

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3)15/10614.2%1.220/80.0%0.0

Over 9-10f trips14/8616.3%1.262/229.1%0.85

Too few runners to read reliably

At Newmarket (small sample)1/147.1%0.691/425.0%2.11

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 72 at/around today's trip, clears the ~72.0 demand

Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields3rd of 6

-0.12 mph

About the level of its fields · 38.1 raw

Break · 0-20mph4th of 6

+0.16s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed5th of 6

101.1%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length5th of 6

6.82 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

30 Jun 26Salisbury8fGood3rdFast early37.4 -0.1797.8+0.07

3 Jan 26Lingfield8fSlow4thTrue40.0 -0.18104.6+0.37

12 Dec 25Southwell7fStd2ndSlow early38.9 +0.79105.0+0.05

26 Nov 25Southwell7fStd8thSlow early38.0 -0.44102.2+0.00

2 Oct 25Salisbury8fGd/Sft11thTrue36.0 -0.6195.8+0.32

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.70par2f+0.69fast3f+0.65par4f+0.58fast5f+0.55fast6f+0.73par7f+0.64very slow1m+0.23slow

Timed runs 2025-10-02 to 2026-06-30. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Figure OFF-CONTEXT (8f→10f) — earned under different conditionsRated #2 in this field (72.0)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“rear, shaken up 3f out, still off pace entering final 1f, finished well, never nearer”

#3 MADJID MID

DRAW 6 · OR 64 · Cieren Fallon / Harry Charlton

MARKET backed 4.9 → 3.5

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−

67 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

67 · ranked #3 here · career best 74

Official mark (OR)

64 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 4 tries

Days since last run

16

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s)
Usually races midfield · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 104.17% (strong late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

7thClass 5 · 10.0f · rated 645thClass 5 · 10.2f · rated 699thClass 5 · 10.0f · rated 682ndClass 5 · 10.2f · rated 744thClass 3 · 8.1f · rated 69

Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Harry Charlton · 556 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.8 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 4-5 company ✦39/28413.7%0.854/656.2%0.4

At this time of year (Q3)28/20313.8%0.812/1910.5%0.71

In fields of <=7 ✦23/11320.4%0.865/3315.2%0.76

Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦39/24815.7%0.868/5514.5%0.83

Too few runners to read reliably

At Newmarket (small sample)5/2718.5%0.990/60.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 74 at/around today's trip, clears the ~72.0 demand

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields4th of 6

-0.31 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 38.9 raw

Break · 0-20mph3rd of 6

+0.10s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed2nd of 6

104.2%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length1st of 6

7.50 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

2 Jul 26Newbury10fGd/Frm7th—40.3 +0.15105.4——

5 Jun 26Doncaster10fGd/Frm5thTrue38.9 -0.19104.9-0.16

15 May 26Newbury10fGood9thTrue38.4 -0.55108.8+0.00

24 Apr 26Doncaster10fGd/Frm2ndTrue37.8 -0.02103.3+0.10

17 Jan 26Southwell8fStd4thSlow early39.4 +0.00109.6+0.00

8 Aug 25Newmarket7fGd/Frm9thTrue38.5 -1.2692.9+0.57

Timed runs 2025-08-08 to 2026-07-02. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Rated #3 in this field (67)Only 4 runs at this distanceBOOKING UPGRADE — 12m top-4 jockey booked, only 1 ride(s) for this yard in 12m, after non-elite riders on the horse: an intent read (context only,…Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“mid-field, effort when bumped 2f out, wandered soon after, beaten 1f out”

#4 FLAG OF EVA MID

DRAW 3 · OR 65 · Edward Greatrex / Michael Appleby

MARKET drifting 34 → 55

Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−

60.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

60.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 60

Official mark (OR)

65 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 2 tries

Days since last run

28

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.7s)
Usually races held-up (one-paced)

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 108.43% (strong late)

Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

3rdClass 3 · 10.2f · rated 606thClass 3 · 11.0f · rated 606thClass 4 · 8.3f · rated 22

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Michael Appleby · 1544 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange

Signature angle: in fields of 8-11

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In fields of <=7 ✦38/21817.4%1.0516/6624.2%1.39

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3)45/32813.7%1.223/358.6%0.76

Too few runners to read reliably

At Newmarket (small sample)5/2321.7%2.472/1315.4%2.09

Over 9-10f trips (small sample)4/666.1%0.712/1315.4%1.98

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 60 is below the ~72.0 the race demands

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields6th of 6

-1.15 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 37.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph5th of 6

+0.42s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed1st of 6

108.4%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length6th of 6

6.60 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

20 Jun 26Nottingham10fGood3rdSlow early38.5 -0.60113.3+0.00

27 May 26Kempton Park10fSlow6thSlow early36.5 -0.24107.3+0.00

9 May 26Nottingham8fGood6thSlow early37.9 -2.60104.7+0.84

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.21slow2f+0.21slow3f+0.25very slow4f+0.32slow5fledvery slow6f+0.06very slow7f+0.06par1m+0.29very fast1m 1f+0.64very fast1m 2f+1.24very fast

Timed runs 2026-05-09 to 2026-06-20. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 3 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Drops in class todayImproving fast — last run rated 60, 12pts above his recent average of 47.3Only 2 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 0 wins from 11 runs

LTO comment

“chased leader, ridden over 2f out, beaten approaching final 1f”

#5 PIPILY FRONT

DRAW 2 · OR 62 · Ray Dawson / T. J. Kent

MARKET drifting 20 → 34

Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−

54.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

54.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 63

Official mark (OR)

62 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 1 tries

Days since last run

32

Sectional clock

Last time: 2.0s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent and weakens

Run style & finish

Front-runner · finishing speed 99.93% (one-paced late)

Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

7thClass 5 · 8.6f · rated 544thClass 4 · 7.0f · rated 636thClass 2 · 7.0f · rated 409thClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 46

Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

T. J. Kent · 183 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Over 9-10f trips2/1910.5%1.272/450.0%5.33

At Newmarket1/128.3%0.982/922.2%1.71

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Coming back after 15 to 45 days17/8220.7%1.621/156.7%0.62

In Class 4-5 company20/10519.0%1.472/267.7%0.74

In fields of <=75/1533.3%1.451/119.1%0.78

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 63 is below the ~72.0 the race demands

Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields2nd of 6

-0.10 mph

About the level of its fields · 38.3 raw

Break · 0-20mph1st of 6

+0.00s

Quicker away than the field · fast away 3 of 4

Finish · closing speed6th of 6

99.9%

One-paced late

Stride length4th of 6

7.11 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

16 Jun 26Wolverhampton8fStd7thTrue37.3 -0.01101.0+0.00

2 Aug 25Newmarket7fGood4thSlow early39.7 -0.50103.1-0.12

19 Jul 25Newmarket7fGd/Sft6thTrue37.6 -0.1895.9+0.13

9 Jun 25Pontefract6fGood9thTrue38.7 +0.2899.7+0.00

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1fledfast2f+0.03par3f+0.04par4f+0.16par5f+0.26par6f+0.35slow7f+0.37slow1m+0.85very slow1m 1f+1.94slow

Timed runs 2025-06-09 to 2026-06-16. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Only 1 run at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRuns Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“prominent, under pressure under 3f out, weakened”

#6 MOON WARP HELD-UP

DRAW 5 · OR 61 · Luke Morris / Sir Mark Prescott Bt

MARKET 2.7

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−

39.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

FormLab Figure

39.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 69 · earned over 7.0/7.0/7.0f — never rated near today's distance (untested here)

Official mark (OR)

61 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

untried at this distance

Days since last run

318

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.8s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races held-up (one-paced)

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 103.3% (strong late)

Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

12thClass 4 · 7.0f · rated 398thClass 4 · 7.0f · rated 3410thClass 4 · 7.0f · rated 324thClass 5 · 7.4f · rated 69

Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Sir Mark Prescott Bt · 532 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.2 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 4-5 company60/29920.1%1.098/7211.1%0.68

Over 9-10f trips10/5617.9%0.962/1513.3%0.68

On turf52/21524.2%1.066/3716.2%0.69

In fields of <=746/16228.4%1.088/3423.5%0.79

Too few runners to read reliably

At Newmarket (small sample)1/714.3%1.20/20.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 59 is below the ~72.0 the race demands

Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields5th of 6

-0.74 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 38.1 raw

Break · 0-20mph6th of 6

+0.44s

Slow away in 4 of 4 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed4th of 6

103.3%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length2nd of 6

7.20 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

3 Sep 25Kempton Park7fSlow12thSlow early36.7 -2.48105.3+0.38

20 Aug 25Kempton Park7fStd8thTrue38.8 -0.1299.2+0.48

6 Aug 25Kempton Park7fStd/Slow10thTrue37.9 -0.01101.5+0.43

29 Jul 25Beverley7fGd/Frm4thSlow early39.0 -0.37107.2+0.48

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.78par2f+0.84slow3f+0.94very slow4f+0.98very slow5f+1.39slow6f+2.16slow7f+2.78par

Timed runs 2025-07-29 to 2025-09-03 · last timed run 318 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Drops in class todayRating earned over 7.0/7.0/7.0f, not today's distance — never rated near today's trip (untested at this distance)Lost roughly 1.7 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultReturns from 318 days off

LTO comment

“always behind”