THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 31.6%winner in the projected 1–2–3 65.4%136 races · latest settled day: #1 10/37, top-3 20/37forensic read: #1 28.6% · top-3 60.3% (63)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Even/unclear early shape. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 49.56% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 4 at halfway, 0.27s off the lead. The measured order tops ELAN D'OR on 88, 1pts clear of MYTHICAL GUEST (IRE). ELAN D'OR: the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The shape danger is SILCA BAY — the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
ELAN D'OR
OR 87 · Marco Ghiani / Stuart Williams
MARKET backed 6.8 → 4.5
88FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−The top rating in this field (88)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
MYTHICAL GUEST (IRE)
OR 80 · Robert Havlin / George Margarson
MARKET drifting 4.6 → 5.2
87.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 8−Rated #2 in this field (87.0)Race-fit — ran 8 days agoA course winner (1 from 10 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 4
SILCA BAY
OR 77 · Oliver Carmichael / Eve Johnson Houghton
MARKET drifting 4.6 → 6.4
86.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−Rated #3 in this field (86.0)Proven over the trip (13 tries, beats market expectation at 3.36)Stable in form this week — 3 wins from 14 runsMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1ELAN D'ORnet +8figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band − 5lb+ above last winning mark
2SILCA BAYnet +6race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 late speed today, energy in the winning band, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot − clock FADE
3ASTRAZAR (IRE)net +6race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, energy in the winning band, proven at trip, proven on the going, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot − habitually slow away
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (no confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–7
1234567
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: ELAN D'OR is 0/3 on softer ground · MYTHICAL GUEST (IRE) is 0/5 on softer ground · SILCA BAY is 1/1 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
MYTHICAL GUEST (IRE)MID51.7%95.0held up without the late gear (6th of 6 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
ELAN D'ORHELD-UP49.7%102.0the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
LADY MARIKOMID50.3%100.1one-paced late — 5th of 6 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
SILCA BAYMID50.0%101.5the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
DOVEY MOONMID49.4%100.5the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
ASTRAZAR (IRE)HELD-UP50.1%100.2one-paced late — 4th of 6 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1ELAN D'ORHELD-UP
DRAW 1 · OR 87 · Marco Ghiani / Stuart Williams
MARKET backed 6.8 → 4.5
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−
88FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
88 · ranked #1 here · career best 96
Official mark (OR)
87 · last won off 80
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 8 tries · beats market expectation (1.1)
Days since last run
29
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.6s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 102.0% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Stuart Williams · 958 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, off marks in the 61 to 75 range, switching jockey after a defeat, with their 3yos, off a judgement-rated last figure
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=7 ✦30/16418.3%1.0911/5320.8%1.44
At Newmarket11/7514.7%1.534/3710.8%1.31
At this time of year (Q3)44/28215.6%1.383/2313.0%1.2
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 95 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.7 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 6
+0.25 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 6
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 6
102.0%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 6
7.23 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
19 Jun 26Newmarket8fGood11thFast early40.5 -0.0393.8—
1 May 26Newmarket8fGood5thTrue39.9 +0.0497.3+0.12
3 Dec 25Kempton Park8fStd1stSlow early40.7 +0.85112.9+0.00
26 Nov 25Chelmsford City7fSlow1stSlow early39.0 -0.07104.5+0.01
29 Oct 25Kempton Park7fStd2ndTrue40.6 +0.75107.4+0.21
4 Oct 25Newmarket7fGood15thTrue40.8 -0.0296.1+0.25
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-10-04 to 2026-06-19. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
7lb above his last winning mark (87 today vs 80)The top rating in this field (88)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, pushed along 3f out, faded”
#2MYTHICAL GUEST (IRE)MID
DRAW 5 · OR 80 · Robert Havlin / George Margarson
MARKET drifting 4.6 → 5.2
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 8−
87.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
87.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 94
Official mark (OR)
80 · last won off 79
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 19 tries
Days since last run
8
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent and weakens
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
George Margarson · 211 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Newmarket2/248.3%0.940/110.0%0.0
Coming back after 8 to 14 days3/2313.0%1.240/90.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark6/3517.1%1.230/190.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)4/596.8%0.870/70.0%0.0
On turf10/1208.3%1.061/492.0%0.3
Over 7-8f trips5/736.8%0.831/342.9%0.36
In Class 4-5 company8/7410.8%1.311/244.2%0.47
In fields of <=75/3116.1%1.291/175.9%0.71
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 94 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.7 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 6
+0.21 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 6
+0.06s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 6
95.0%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 6
7.41 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
10 Jul 26Ascot8fFirm3rdTrue39.4 +0.09103.7+0.14
19 Jun 26Newmarket8fGood9thFast early40.6 +0.1694.9—
Timed runs 2025-10-03 to 2026-07-10. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #2 in this field (87.0)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 8 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 10 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“held up, headway when switched 2f out, pushed along soon after, every chance 1f out, no extra final 100 yds”
#3SILCA BAYMID
DRAW 4 · OR 77 · Oliver Carmichael / Eve Johnson Houghton
MARKET drifting 4.6 → 6.4
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
86.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
86.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 86
Official mark (OR)
77 · last won off 75
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 13 tries · beats market expectation (3.36)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.7s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 101.51% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Eve Johnson Houghton · 1036 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: off a TFR-FALLING figure trend
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3) ✦38/36410.4%1.028/3622.2%1.41
Over 7-8f trips ✦39/35311.0%1.1515/9615.6%1.28
On turf ✦64/57611.1%1.0625/17014.7%1.24
In Class 4-5 company ✦66/49713.3%1.1423/14316.1%1.17
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Above their last winning mark21/15913.2%1.116/5510.9%0.78
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newmarket (small sample)4/429.5%1.010/70.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 87 is below the ~87.7 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 6
-0.15 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 6
+0.08s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 6
101.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 6
7.01 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-12-17 to 2026-07-03. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #3 in this field (86.0)Proven over the trip (13 tries, beats market expectation at 3.36)Stable in form this week — 3 wins from 14 runsMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“off pace, ridden not clear run over 2f out, headway when switched before final 1f, hampered before final 100 yds, kept on”
#4ASTRAZAR (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 6 · OR 82 · Hector Crouch / Ed Walker
MARKET 4.1
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
86.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
86.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 86
Official mark (OR)
82 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 5 tries · beats market expectation (3.0)
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.6s) · best on the clock in its race Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.25% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ed Walker · 1100 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 8-16 odds, at this time of year (Q2)
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On turf ✦89/59415.0%1.0336/20217.8%1.26
Over 7-8f trips52/41412.6%0.9826/13818.8%1.22
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=744/20421.6%1.0313/7018.6%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newmarket (small sample)8/5614.3%0.992/1414.3%1.13
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 86 is below the ~87.7 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 6
+0.18 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 6
+0.58s
Slow away in 5 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed4th of 6
100.2%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length3rd of 6
7.22 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26Chester7fGood4thTrue40.1 -0.02102.5+0.40
30 May 26Carlisle7fGd/Frm7thTrue37.7 +0.01100.0+0.65
Timed runs 2025-08-21 to 2026-06-27. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Only 5 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 6 wins from 18 runsLost roughly 1.8 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“dwelt, rear, passed beaten rivals”
#5DOVEY MOONMIDFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 3 · OR 77 · John Egan / David Evans
MARKET drifting 11 → 12
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−
79.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
79.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 84
Official mark (OR)
77 · last won off 75
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 13 tries · beats market expectation (2.29)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.9s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races prominent-closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David Evans · 892 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days35/33010.6%0.989/7611.8%1.25
In Class 4-5 company ✦30/3378.9%1.0112/9612.5%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)19/2069.2%0.922/248.3%0.56
Over 7-8f trips ✦26/26010.0%0.934/596.8%0.6
In fields of <=723/14316.1%1.127/5911.9%0.85
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newmarket (small sample)0/70.0%0.0—
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 85 is below the ~87.7 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 6
+0.16 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 6
+0.44s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed3rd of 6
100.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 6
7.19 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 Jun 26Pontefract8fGood3rd—37.9 +0.22101.2+0.55—
15 Oct 25Nottingham8fGd/Sft1stTrue39.0 +0.2999.9+0.36
2 Oct 25Nottingham8fGd/Sft3rdTrue38.5 -0.0199.2+0.24
Timed runs 2025-10-02 to 2026-06-29. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven over the trip (13 tries, beats market expectation at 2.29)Jockey goes well at this track (2.45x market expectation)Lost roughly 2.5 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“off pace, ridden and headway over 1f out, stayed on”
#6LADY MARIKOMID
DRAW 7 · OR 78 · Cieren Fallon / Dylan Cunha
MARKET backed 12 → 10.5
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
74.3FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
74.3 · ranked #6 here · career best 86
Official mark (OR)
78 · last won off 74
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 18 tries · below market expectation (0.8)
Days since last run
31
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.1s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races prominent
Career sheet · last 18 months · 19 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Dylan Cunha · 808 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark ✦26/15416.9%1.1110/6714.9%1.35
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days39/28713.6%1.084/994.0%0.4
At this time of year (Q3)23/20311.3%0.991/224.5%0.52
In fields of <=7 ✦24/15415.6%0.916/5810.3%0.6
Too few runners to read reliably
At Newmarket (small sample)1/412.4%0.341/156.7%0.91
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 86 is below the ~87.7 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 6
+0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 6
+0.21s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 6
100.1%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 6
7.18 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Jun 26Ascot8fGd/Frm18thTrue38.7 -0.3298.0+0.26
4 Jun 26Wetherby7fGd/Frm6thFast early41.5 +0.47103.3+0.20
Timed runs 2025-11-01 to 2026-06-17. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (78 today vs 74)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“waited with, progress under 2f out, edged left, no extra final 1f”