THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 31.6%winner in the projected 1–2–3 65.4%136 races · latest settled day: #1 10/37, top-3 20/37forensic read: #1 28.6% · top-3 60.3% (63)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
NO KNEE NEVER (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 47.7% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 3 at halfway, 0.36s off the lead. The measured order tops PERFIDIA (IRE) on 69, 4pts clear of TEES GEORGE. PERFIDIA (IRE): the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it. The shape danger is SCEPTIC (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
PERFIDIA (IRE)
OR 59 · Jake Dickson / Tim Easterby
MARKET drifting 2.22 → 2.44
69.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−The top rating in this field (69.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.98x market expectation)A course winner (1 from 3 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
TEES GEORGE
OR 61 · Shay Farmer / Adrian Nicholls
MARKET 5
65.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−Rated #2 in this field (65.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.5x market expectation)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
SCEPTIC (IRE)
OR 59 · Donagh Murphy / Ian Williams
MARKET drifting 5.1 → 6.6
63.7FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #3 in this field (63.7)Proven over the trip (19 tries, beats market expectation at 2.08)Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 10 runs
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1PERFIDIA (IRE)net +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, runs the dominant winning style here, yard positive in today’s setup, FormLab watch flag
2NO KNEE NEVER (IRE)net +6drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 speed vs its fields, runs the dominant winning style here
3TEES GEORGEnet +5figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, runs the dominant winning style here − burns early and empties
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–6
123456
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is drawn HIGH (early types average stall 6.0 of 6, field average 3.5).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: PERFIDIA (IRE) is 1/16 on softer ground · TEES GEORGE is 0/9 on softer ground · SCEPTIC (IRE) is 0/3 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
NO KNEE NEVER (IRE)PROMINENT50.4%101.0the only measured early speed in the race, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late
POPEYE DOYLE (FR)MID49.2%100.9solid late gains (5th of 6 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
TEES GEORGEMID50.4%97.5held up without the late gear (6th of 6 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
BAY DREAM BELIEVER (IRE)HELD-UP49.8%102.7the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
SCEPTIC (IRE)MID48.9%104.4the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
PERFIDIA (IRE)MID49.0%102.3the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
NO KNEE NEVER (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.8 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.15s off the field’s best
NO KNEE NEVER (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1PERFIDIA (IRE)MIDFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 5 · OR 59 · Jake Dickson / Tim Easterby
MARKET drifting 2.22 → 2.44
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−
69.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
69.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 69
Official mark (OR)
59 · last won off 57
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 22 tries · below market expectation (0.92)
Days since last run
18
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 0.9s Usually races front-runner
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.26% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 21 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2889 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Nottingham4/508.0%0.834/2416.7%1.29
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 68 at/around today's trip, clears the ~65.3 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 6
-0.11 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 6
+0.43s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 6
102.3%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 6
7.47 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Musselburgh8fGd/Frm2ndTrue39.4 +0.00106.7+0.94
25 Jun 26Nottingham8.3fGd/Frm1stTrue39.7 -0.28106.6+0.00
10 Jun 26Hamilton Park8fGd/Sft9thTrue38.2 -0.3898.0+0.32
3 Jun 26Ripon8fGood5thTrue39.4 -0.1499.8—
25 May 26Redcar7fGd/Frm3rdTrue41.3 -0.11100.2+0.26
15 May 26Hamilton Park8fGood1stTrue39.5 +0.23102.2+0.61
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-05-15 to 2026-06-30. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (69.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.98x market expectation)Lost roughly 4.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 3 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“close up, challenged 2f out, led briefly over 1f out, kept on, just failed”
#2TEES GEORGEMID
DRAW 1 · OR 61 · Shay Farmer / Adrian Nicholls
MARKET 5
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
65.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
65.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 70
Official mark (OR)
61 · last won off 59
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 24 tries · below market expectation (0.64)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) Usually races prominent-closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Adrian Nicholls · 340 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 7-8f trips2/583.4%0.422/1711.8%1.38
Coming back after 15 to 45 days12/1448.3%0.893/2313.0%1.22
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company15/1639.2%1.092/365.6%0.56
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)1/250.0%3.71/520.0%1.2
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 71 at/around today's trip, clears the ~65.3 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 6
+0.25 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 6
+0.25s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 6
97.5%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 6
7.71 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 Jun 26Pontefract10fGood3rd—36.7 +0.1298.0+0.14—
10 Jun 26Hamilton Park8fGd/Sft4thTrue38.9 +0.27101.0+0.17
12 May 26Beverley8fGd/Frm8thFast early39.4 +0.2091.1+0.31
Timed runs 2025-09-30 to 2026-06-29. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (65.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.5x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“steadied start, progress home turn, effort over 1f out, no further impression”
#3SCEPTIC (IRE)MIDFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 2 · OR 59 · Donagh Murphy / Ian Williams
MARKET drifting 5.1 → 6.6
63.7FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
63.7 · ranked #3 here · career best 97
Official mark (OR)
59 · last won off 56
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 19 tries · beats market expectation (2.08)
Days since last run
34
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s) Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.37% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Christian Williams
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 97 at/around today's trip, clears the ~65.3 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 6
-0.06 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 6
+0.41s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed1st of 6
104.4%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 6
7.34 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
14 Jun 26Doncaster7fGd/Sft9thTrue40.0 +0.37101.9+0.74
6 May 26Kempton Park8fSlow1stTrue37.5 -0.39103.1+0.38
Timed runs 2026-02-28 to 2026-06-14. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (59 today vs 56)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #3 in this field (63.7)Proven over the trip (19 tries, beats market expectation at 2.08)Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 10 runsJockey goes well at this track (4.9x market expectation)Lost roughly 3.3 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“shuffled back early, headway over 2f out, held when eased close home”
#4POPEYE DOYLE (FR)MID
DRAW 3 · OR 64 · Finlay Bassett / Jessica Bedi
MARKET 50
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−
62.3FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
62.3 · ranked #4 here · career best 77
Official mark (OR)
64 · last won off 64
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 10 tries · beats market expectation (1.79)
Days since last run
12
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.89% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jessica Bedi · 102 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 14.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company0/170.0%0.00/90.0%0.0
Coming back after 8 to 14 days1/911.1%2.390/150.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)0/130.0%0.00/50.0%0.0
In fields of <=70/120.0%0.01/175.9%0.72
On turf0/310.0%0.01/214.8%0.76
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)0/20.0%0.0—
Over 7-8f trips (small sample)0/30.0%0.00/30.0%0.0
Back at their last winning mark (small sample)—0/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 77 at/around today's trip, clears the ~65.3 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 6
+0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 6
+0.16s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 6
100.9%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 6
6.86 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Ripon8fGood7thTrue39.1 +0.35100.8—
24 Jun 26Carlisle7fGd/Frm9thTrue37.8 -0.4997.0+0.34
15 Jun 26Wetherby8fGd/Frm2ndTrue40.4 +0.19106.0+0.00
17 May 26Ripon9fGood11thTrue38.5 +0.4987.0+0.35
19 Dec 25Newcastle10fStd6thTrue37.9 -1.04105.7+0.10
18 Oct 25Wolverhampton9fSlow3rdTrue39.2 +0.80108.8+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-10-18 to 2026-07-06. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayProven over the trip (10 tries, beats market expectation at 1.79)Race-fit — ran 12 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“mid-field, ridden over 2f out, beaten over 1f out”
#5NO KNEE NEVER (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 6 · OR 69 · Joe Bradnam / James Owen
MARKET backed 6.6 → 5.9
61.3FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
61.3 · ranked #5 here · career best 81
Official mark (OR)
69 · last won off 65
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 22 tries · below market expectation (0.92)
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: 3.3s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 101.04% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 23 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Owen · 1537 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: at 4-8 odds, without a recent yard winner, on Good to Firm ground
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)2/1414.3%0.750/80.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 81 at/around today's trip, clears the ~65.3 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 6
+0.28 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 6
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 6
101.0%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 6
7.20 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26York10fGood13thTrue38.9 +0.2799.9+0.00
13 Jun 26York11fGood5thTrue37.7 +0.00100.2+0.25
3 Jun 26Nottingham10fGood3rdTrue37.8 +0.16104.2+0.38
22 May 26Pontefract8fGd/Sft4thTrue38.2 +1.35100.1+0.19
Timed runs 2026-04-27 to 2026-06-27. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (69 today vs 65)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayDrops in class todayHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“held up, outpaced 4f out, passed beaten rivals”
#6BAY DREAM BELIEVER (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 4 · OR 60 · Kyle McHugh / Mark Walford
MARKET drifting 12 → 25
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
61.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
61.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 68
Official mark (OR)
60 · last won off 58
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 19 tries · beats market expectation (1.47)
Days since last run
18
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s) Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 102.65% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Mark Walford · 408 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days11/1358.1%0.926/4812.5%1.54
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)16/14011.4%1.340/130.0%0.0
In fields of <=77/4216.7%1.220/100.0%0.0
Over 7-8f trips8/1375.8%0.82/405.0%0.74
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)1/128.3%0.920/60.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 71 at/around today's trip, clears the ~65.3 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 6
+0.17 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 6
+0.53s
Slow away in 4 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed2nd of 6
102.7%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 6
6.86 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Musselburgh8fGd/Frm6thTrue39.2 -0.17105.7+0.21
17 Jun 26Ripon9fGood7thTrue39.6 +0.60102.7—
2 Jun 26Pontefract10fGood1stTrue36.5 +0.30104.1+0.46
Timed runs 2026-03-28 to 2026-06-30. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayProven over the trip (19 tries, beats market expectation at 1.47)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“mid-field, ridden when not clear run 2f out, weakened”