THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 31.6%winner in the projected 1–2–3 65.4%136 races · latest settled day: #1 10/37, top-3 20/37forensic read: #1 28.6% · top-3 60.3% (63)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
THURSDAY GIRL is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 47.7% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 3 at halfway, 0.36s off the lead. The measured order tops THURSDAY GIRL on 84, 8pts clear of MOONLIT SURF. THURSDAY GIRL: the only measured early speed in the race, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late. The shape danger is SEDEIRAH (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
THURSDAY GIRL
OR · Ashley Lewis / Ed Walker
MARKET backed 2.3 → 1.67
84.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−The top rating in this field (84.0)Stable in form this week — 6 wins from 18 runsRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
MOONLIT SURF
OR · Callum Rodriguez / Owen Burrows
MARKET drifting 5 → 5.9
76.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−Rated #2 in this field (76.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
SEDEIRAH (IRE)
OR · C. Horgan / Edward Bethell
MARKET drifting 17.5 → 44
67.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−Drops in class todayRated #3 in this field (67.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.83x market expectation)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1THURSDAY GIRLnet +8figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 speed vs its fields, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot
2MOONLIT SURFnet +6figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, yard positive in today’s setup, FormLab watch flag − habitually slow away
3SEDEIRAH (IRE)net +4drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), yard hot
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 5 runners · stalls 1–5
12345
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: THURSDAY GIRL is 0/1 on softer ground · MOONLIT SURF is unraced on softer ground · SEDEIRAH (IRE) is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
EFFETTO (FR)———-
MOONLIT SURFHELD-UP48.4%105.9a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
SEDEIRAH (IRE)HELD-UP44.6%106.5the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
STELLAR (IRE)———-
THURSDAY GIRLPROMINENT48.6%102.1the only measured early speed in the race, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
THURSDAY GIRLPROMINENTtypically ~1.6 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.08s off the field’s best
THURSDAY GIRL is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1THURSDAY GIRLPROMINENT
DRAW 1 · OR · Ashley Lewis / Ed Walker
MARKET backed 2.3 → 1.67
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
84.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
84.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 84
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 4 tries
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 102.13% (holds late)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ed Walker · 1100 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 8-16 odds, at this time of year (Q2)
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On turf ✦89/59415.0%1.0336/20217.8%1.26
Over 7-8f trips52/41412.6%0.9826/13818.8%1.22
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=744/20421.6%1.0313/7018.6%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)5/1926.3%1.523/1520.0%1.23
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 84 at/around today's trip, clears the ~76.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 3
+0.60 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 3
+0.08s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 3
102.1%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 3
7.30 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-10-02 to 2026-07-03. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
The top rating in this field (84.0)Only 4 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 6 wins from 18 runsNEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.22 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“close up, shaken up under 3f out, challenged before final 1f, edged ahead inside final 100 yds, headed final 50 yds, kept on”
#2MOONLIT SURFHELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 3 · OR · Callum Rodriguez / Owen Burrows
MARKET drifting 5 → 5.9
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−
76.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
76.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 76
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 4 tries
Days since last run
35
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 105.86% (strong late)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Owen Burrows · 320 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.6 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Callum Rodriguez, in fields of <=7
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=7 ✦23/6336.5%1.557/2528.0%1.34
At this time of year (Q3)26/10524.8%1.343/1030.0%1.27
Over 7-8f trips22/9822.4%1.216/3020.0%1.23
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company27/13719.7%1.013/3010.0%0.54
Coming back after 15 to 45 days27/13020.8%1.23/2810.7%0.59
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)1/520.0%0.950/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 76 at/around today's trip, clears the ~76.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 3
+0.46 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 3
+0.48s
Slow away in 4 of 4 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed2nd of 3
105.9%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 3
7.36 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jun 26Sandown Park8fGood4thTrue38.7 +0.86102.8+0.51
29 May 26Wolverhampton8fStd5th—39.6 +0.36108.5+0.52
18 May 26Windsor8fGood6thTrue41.3 +0.38110.0+0.50
15 Oct 25Kempton Park7fStd6thTrue38.6 +0.22102.1+0.38
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-10-15 to 2026-06-13. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #2 in this field (76.0)Improving fast — last run rated 76, 10pts above his recent average of 66.0Only 4 runs at this distanceMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
LTO comment
“dwelt, dropped out, effort 2f out, kept on final 1f, nearest finish”
#3SEDEIRAH (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 2 · OR · C. Horgan / Edward Bethell
MARKET drifting 17.5 → 44
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
67.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
67.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 67
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 106.47% (strong late)
Recent form · last 2 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Edward Bethell · 855 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)39/25315.4%0.959/3823.7%1.4
In Class 4-5 company68/42116.2%0.8624/12619.0%1.17
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=7 ✦31/15420.1%0.8311/7913.9%0.69
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)5/1533.3%1.591/128.3%0.7
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 67 is below the ~76.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 3
+0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.2 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 3
+0.55s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 3
106.5%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 3
6.58 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy