THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 31.6%winner in the projected 1–2–3 65.4%136 races · latest settled day: #1 10/37, top-3 20/37forensic read: #1 28.6% · top-3 60.3% (63)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
ABLON (FR) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 48.05% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 3 at halfway, 0.46s off the lead. The measured order tops EVERYONEKNOWSADAVE (IRE) on 79, 2.3pts clear of ABLON (FR). EVERYONEKNOWSADAVE (IRE): solid late gains (5th of 6 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it. The shape danger is CAELAN (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 6
EVERYONEKNOWSADAVE (IRE)
OR 70 · Ashley Lewis / Jessica Macey
MARKET drifting 4 → 4.4
79.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−The top rating in this field (79.0)Proven over the trip (8 tries, beats market expectation at 1.37)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
ABLON (FR)
OR 70 · Callum Rodriguez / Richard Hannon
MARKET backed 3.15 → 2.82
76.7FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−Rated #2 in this field (76.7)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 4
DIDAAR (IRE)
OR 68 · Jake Dickson / Gihan Arnolda
MARKET backed 5.1 → 4.6
75.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Rated #3 in this field (75.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.98x market expectation)A course winner (1 from 1 here)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1ABLON (FR)net +8figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here
2EVERYONEKNOWSADAVE (IRE)net +6figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, proven at trip
3DIDAAR (IRE)net +6race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, energy in the winning band, FormLab watch flag − habitually slow away
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
REVELIO FIGURE #4
Tom Clover's runners on turf win 16.0% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–6
123456
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 2.0 of 6, field average 3.5).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: EVERYONEKNOWSADAVE (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground · ABLON (FR) is 0/1 on softer ground · DIDAAR (IRE) is 0/6 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
ABLON (FR)FRONT48.7%104.4the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late · sharp from the stalls
WOODSTOCK CITYMID49.3%102.8solid late gains (4th of 6 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
EVERYONEKNOWSADAVE (IRE)MID49.2%102.5solid late gains (5th of 6 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
DIDAAR (IRE)MID49.0%106.1a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
CAELAN (IRE)HELD-UP48.8%107.3the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
REVELIOMID49.0%102.3solid late gains (6th of 6 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
ABLON (FR)FRONTtypically ~2.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
ABLON (FR) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1EVERYONEKNOWSADAVE (IRE)MID
DRAW 6 · OR 70 · Ashley Lewis / Jessica Macey
MARKET drifting 4 → 4.4
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−
79.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
79.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 79
Official mark (OR)
70 · last won off 69
Record at today's distance
1 win from 8 tries · beats market expectation (1.37)
Days since last run
35
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · best on the clock in its race Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.47% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jessica Macey · 419 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company15/1649.1%0.970/590.0%0.0
Over 9-10f trips0/130.0%0.00/90.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days15/1688.9%0.860/600.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark9/1058.6%0.730/280.0%0.0
On turf14/1718.2%0.840/610.0%0.0
In fields of <=75/3912.8%0.90/170.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)1/137.7%1.010/30.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)7/987.1%0.720/50.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 82 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 6
+0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 37.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 6
+0.06s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 6
102.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 6
6.79 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jun 26Leicester10fGood2ndTrue38.0 -0.15104.4-0.01
2 Jun 26Pontefract10fGood3rdTrue37.1 +0.85105.1+0.31
Timed runs 2025-11-03 to 2026-06-13. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
The top rating in this field (79.0)Proven over the trip (8 tries, beats market expectation at 1.37)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“mid-field, headway approaching 2f out, chased leader over 1f out, ran on”
#2ABLON (FR)FRONT
DRAW 2 · OR 70 · Callum Rodriguez / Richard Hannon
MARKET backed 3.15 → 2.82
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
76.7FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
76.7 · ranked #2 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
70 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) Usually races front-runner · clock read is off a superseded run
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard Hannon · 2080 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)56/6678.4%0.819/6214.5%1.28
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 9-10f trips31/16319.0%1.546/708.6%0.75
In fields of <=7 ✦61/37516.3%0.9520/12815.6%0.82
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)5/2619.2%1.260/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 82 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78 demand
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 6
+0.01 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 6
+0.02s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 6
104.4%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 6
7.16 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
2 Jul 26Newbury10fGd/Frm5th—40.1 -0.09105.4——
25 Feb 26Kempton Park7fSlow1stTrue39.2 +0.00106.7-0.09
11 Feb 26Kempton Park8fSlow2ndTrue38.6 +0.12101.2+0.13
Timed runs 2026-02-11 to 2026-07-02. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #2 in this field (76.7)Only 2 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 2 wins from 23 runsBOOKING UPGRADE — 12m top-16 jockey booked, only 2 ride(s) for this yard in 12m, after non-elite riders on the horse: an intent read (context only,…Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led until 2f out, no extra final 100 yds”
#3DIDAAR (IRE)MIDDOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER
DRAW 4 · OR 68 · Jake Dickson / Gihan Arnolda
MARKET backed 5.1 → 4.6
75.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
75.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 84
Official mark (OR)
68 · last won off 65
Record at today's distance
1 win from 10 tries · below market expectation (0.84)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.6s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent and weakens · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 106.06% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Gihan Arnolda
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 84 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 6
+0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 6
+0.34s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed2nd of 6
106.1%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length5th of 6
7.00 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Aug 25Ffos Las8fGood3rdTrue39.8 -0.20105.1+0.14
Timed runs 2025-08-13 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (68 today vs 65)Rated #3 in this field (75.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.98x market expectation)Lost roughly 2.0 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 1 here)
LTO comment
“held up, ridden over 1f out, ran on late, never dangerous”
#4REVELIOMID
DRAW 1 · OR 66 · Harry Davies / Tom Clover
MARKET drifting 7.4 → 9.8
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
72.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
72.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 72
Official mark (OR)
66 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock Usually races held-up (one-paced)
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.33% (holds late)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tom Clover · 503 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=718/8920.2%0.989/3823.7%1.33
At this time of year (Q3)25/14017.9%1.274/1822.2%1.28
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)0/120.0%0.01/520.0%2.17
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 72 is below the ~78 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 6
+0.19 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 6
+0.13s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 6
102.3%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 6
7.25 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26Lingfield10fGd/Frm2ndTrue38.3 -0.05106.1+0.00
19 May 26Nottingham8fGd/Sft10thTrue37.5 +0.4397.5+0.22
Timed runs 2025-04-26 to 2026-06-27. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Improving fast — last run rated 72, 9pts above his recent average of 63.0Only 2 runs at this distanceNEARLY WON LTO — traded 2.0 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina question
LTO comment
“always behind”
#5CAELAN (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 3 · OR 67 · H. J. Horgan / Olly Murphy
MARKET drifting 17 → 36
70.7FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
70.7 · ranked #5 here · career best 79
Official mark (OR)
67 · last won off 72
Record at today's distance
1 win from 7 tries · beats market expectation (1.09)
Days since last run
4
Sectional clock
Last time: 3.3s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races held-up (one-paced)
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 107.29% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 225 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Olly Murphy
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 79 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 6
-0.39 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 6
+0.41s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 6
107.3%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 6
7.17 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-02-07 to 2026-07-14. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
5lb below his last winning mark (67 today vs 72)Race-fit — ran 4 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“virtually refused to race”
#6WOODSTOCK CITYMID
DRAW 5 · OR 70 · Ryan Kavanagh / Ian Williams
MARKET backed 20 → 12.5
64FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
64 · ranked #6 here · career best 84
Official mark (OR)
70 · last won off 67
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 18 tries · beats market expectation (1.4)
Days since last run
40
Sectional clock
Last time: 3.9s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.79% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Christian Williams
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 84 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 6
-0.17 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 6
+0.02s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 6
102.8%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 6
7.05 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
8 Jun 26Leicester10fGood9thTrue38.8 -0.6695.2-0.15
10 Jan 26Lingfield10fStd2ndTrue39.1 -0.30106.6+0.02
3 Dec 25Kempton Park10fStd6thTrue38.2 -0.37103.9+0.00
30 Oct 25Southwell11fStd1stTrue37.9 +0.38106.6+0.00
Timed runs 2025-09-24 to 2026-06-08. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (70 today vs 67)Proven over the trip (18 tries, beats market expectation at 1.4)Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 10 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance