THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 31.6%winner in the projected 1–2–3 65.4%136 races · latest settled day: #1 10/37, top-3 20/37forensic read: #1 28.6% · top-3 60.3% (63)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
INCA WARRIOR (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 49.72% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 2 at halfway, 0.03s off the lead. The measured order tops QUILLAN (IRE) on 80, 3pts clear of WARBY. QUILLAN (IRE): the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The shape danger is BY JOVE GRACE (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
QUILLAN (IRE)
OR · Kaiya Fraser / David & Nicola Barron
MARKET backed 2.72 → 1.01
80.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (80.0)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
WARBY
OR · David Allan / Tim Easterby
MARKET drifting 2.02 → 1000
77.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Rated #2 in this field (77.0)Race-fit — ran 10 days ago
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
INFLUENCER MAN (IRE)
OR · M. P. Sheehy / Adrian Keatley
MARKET drifting 17 → 950
71.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−Rated #3 in this field (71.0)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1QUILLAN (IRE)net +6figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, energy in the winning band
2INFLUENCER MAN (IRE)net +5race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot
3WARBYnet +4figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), energy in the winning band
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
INCA WARRIOR (IRE) FIGURE #5
Nigel Tinkler's runners kept to the same class win 9.2% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 5 runners · stalls 1–5
12345
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: QUILLAN (IRE) is unraced on softer ground · WARBY is unraced on softer ground · INFLUENCER MAN (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
QUILLAN (IRE)MID49.2%102.8the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
INCA WARRIOR (IRE)PROMINENT49.9%100.2the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late
INFLUENCER MAN (IRE)HELD-UP49.0%102.8the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
WARBYHELD-UP49.9%102.4solid late gains (4th of 5 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
BY JOVE GRACE (IRE)HELD-UP46.9%107.9the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
INCA WARRIOR (IRE)PROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · a beat slow from the stalls (0.24s off the best)
INCA WARRIOR (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1QUILLAN (IRE)MID
DRAW 5 · OR · Kaiya Fraser / David & Nicola Barron
MARKET backed 2.72 → 1.01
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
80.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
80.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 1 tries · beats market expectation (37.79)
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.8% (holds late)
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 4 · 5.0f · rated 80
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David & Nicola Barron · 539 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.6 on the exchange
Signature angle: over 5-6f trips, switching jockey after a defeat, without the retained rider
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=78/7510.7%0.695/1926.3%1.57
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On turf ✦25/3187.9%0.796/787.7%0.76
Over 5-6f trips ✦9/1695.3%0.495/519.8%0.82
In Class 4-5 company ✦16/2157.4%0.766/738.2%0.83
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦12/1786.7%0.695/588.6%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ripon (small sample)1/224.5%0.360/60.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)11/1596.9%0.770/90.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~77.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 5
+0.31 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 42.6 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph1st of 5
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 5
102.8%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 5
7.72 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Jun 26Redcar5fGood1stTrue42.6 +0.31102.8+0.12
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.18par2f+0.34par3f+0.21par4f+0.08par5fledfast
Timed runs 2026-06-20 to 2026-06-20. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (80.0)Only 1 run at this distance
LTO comment
“waited with, headway over 1f out, stayed on to lead final 50 yds, well on top”
#2WARBYHELD-UP
DRAW 1 · OR · David Allan / Tim Easterby
MARKET drifting 2.02 → 1000
77.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
77.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 77
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 2 tries · beats market expectation (3.56)
Days since last run
10
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 102.36% (holds late)
Recent form · last 2 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2889 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 77 at/around today's trip, clears the ~77.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 5
+0.45 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 43.3 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph5th of 5
+0.26s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 5
102.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 5
7.70 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
22 Jun 26Catterick Bridge5fFirm2ndTrue44.6 +0.86100.1+0.41
Timed runs 2026-06-22 to 2026-07-08. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (77.0)Only 2 runs at this distanceRace-fit — ran 10 days ago
LTO comment
“led, in command entering final 1f, eased final 50 yds”
#3INFLUENCER MAN (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 3 · OR · M. P. Sheehy / Adrian Keatley
MARKET drifting 17 → 950
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−
71.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
71.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 71
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
13
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 102.83% (holds late)
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 71
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Adrian Keatley · 418 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: with a new jockey booked, in fields of <=7
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=7 ✦13/6320.6%1.2112/2842.9%1.88
Coming back after 8 to 14 days3/486.2%0.495/2025.0%1.57
At this time of year (Q3)18/11615.5%1.543/1225.0%1.52
In Class 4-5 company ✦25/16814.9%1.1812/5621.4%1.37
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Ripon4/1723.5%1.191/812.5%0.61
Over 5-6f trips22/14115.6%1.264/557.3%0.61
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 71 is below the ~77.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 5
-0.12 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.3 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 5
+0.14s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 5
102.8%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length3rd of 5
7.50 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-07-05 to 2026-07-05. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #3 in this field (71.0)Only 1 run at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina question
LTO comment
“prominent, upsides 2f out, no extra final 100 yds”
#4BY JOVE GRACE (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 2 · OR · Oisin James Orr / Richard & Peter Fahey
MARKET drifting 10.5 → 1000
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
67.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
67.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 67
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
24
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 107.89% (strong late)
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 4 · 5.0f · rated 67
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard & Peter Fahey · 377 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)—6/5910.2%1.2
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Ripon—2/336.1%0.56
In fields of <=7—8/7910.1%0.7
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 67 is below the ~77.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 5
+0.43 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.2 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 5
+0.22s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 5
107.9%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length5th of 5
7.08 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
24 Jun 26Carlisle5fGd/Frm2ndSlow early40.2 +0.43107.9+0.22
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.43very slow2f+0.44very slow3f+0.40par4f+0.01very fast5f+0.26very fast
Timed runs 2026-06-24 to 2026-06-24. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Only 1 run at this distanceStable in form this week — 4 wins from 21 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina question
LTO comment
“held up, ridden and headway over 1f out, challenged final 1f, no extra late on”
Timed runs 2026-07-04 to 2026-07-04. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Only 1 run at this distanceStable in form this week — 2 wins from 10 runs