THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 31.6%winner in the projected 1–2–3 65.4%136 races · latest settled day: #1 10/37, top-3 20/37forensic read: #1 28.6% · top-3 60.3% (63)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 48.61% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 2.5 at halfway, 0.3s off the lead. The measured order tops PRINCE OF THE SEAS (IRE) on 95, 3.7pts clear of STAR HARBOUR (IRE). PRINCE OF THE SEAS (IRE): a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it. The shape danger is ELSASS (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
PRINCE OF THE SEAS (IRE)
OR 87 · Mark Winn / David O'Meara
MARKET 6.6
95.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 3+ / 3−5lb below his last winning mark (87 today vs 92)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayRated #2 in this field (95.0)Proven over the trip (8 tries, beats market expectation at 1.24)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
STAR HARBOUR (IRE)
OR 88 · Oisin James Orr / Adrian McGuinness, Ireland
MARKET 9
91.3FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−8lb below his last winning mark (88 today vs 96)Drops in class todayRated #3 in this field (91.3)
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
SALAMANCA CITY (IRE)
OR 84 · Daniel Muscutt / James Fanshawe
MARKET 5.2
91.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #4 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1ELSASS (IRE)net +9drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band − 5lb+ above last winning mark
2PER CONTRA (IRE)net +7drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), backed since morning, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup, FormLab watch flag − habitually slow away
3SALAMANCA CITY (IRE)net +6race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, yard hot
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
SPIORADALTA FIGURE #5
Mark Walford's runners on turf win 9.4% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (3 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 7 runners · stalls 1–7
1234567
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–7).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: PRINCE OF THE SEAS (IRE) is 0/4 on softer ground · STAR HARBOUR (IRE) is 0/10 on softer ground · SALAMANCA CITY (IRE) is 1/8 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
SPIORADALTAPROMINENT49.5%102.4the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late
STAR HARBOUR (IRE)PROMINENT48.1%105.1concedes ~1.8L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late
ELSASS (IRE)MID48.5%106.2the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
PRINCE OF THE SEAS (IRE)MID51.0%105.4a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
SALAMANCA CITY (IRE)MID48.3%105.1a genuine turn of foot — 5th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
PER CONTRA (IRE)HELD-UP48.9%104.3a genuine turn of foot — 6th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
YAFREHPROMINENT48.8%105.6just behind the quickest early pair — presses, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
SPIORADALTAPROMINENTtypically ~2.3 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.16s off the field’s best
YAFREHPROMINENTtypically ~1.4 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.13s off the field’s best
STAR HARBOUR (IRE)PROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.12s off the field’s best
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1PRINCE OF THE SEAS (IRE)MID
DRAW 3 · OR 87 · Mark Winn / David O'Meara
MARKET 6.6
Yard mixed · 3+ / 3−
95.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
95.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 98
Official mark (OR)
87 · last won off 92
Record at today's distance
1 win from 8 tries · beats market expectation (1.24)
Days since last run
7
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 105.39% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David O'Meara · 2009 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after within 7 days12/9912.1%0.719/2634.6%1.82
Over 11f+ trips28/20813.5%0.989/5018.0%1.22
At Ripon13/7816.7%0.993/2213.6%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)90/65213.8%1.043/575.3%0.42
In Class 1-3 company ✦41/5167.9%0.917/1424.9%0.55
In fields of 8-1193/72312.9%1.0518/1879.6%0.83
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 98 at/around today's trip, clears the ~95.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 7
+0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 7
+0.18s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 7
105.4%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length5th of 7
7.11 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 May 26York11fGd/Sft8thSlow early37.6 -0.44100.1+0.24
25 Apr 26Ripon12fGood5thTrue39.3 +0.16106.4+0.00
Timed runs 2026-04-25 to 2026-07-11. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
5lb below his last winning mark (87 today vs 92)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayRated #2 in this field (95.0)Proven over the trip (8 tries, beats market expectation at 1.24)Stable cold this week — 1 wins from 20 runsLost roughly 1.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 7 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“disputed lead, no extra from 2f out”
#2STAR HARBOUR (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 1 · OR 88 · Oisin James Orr / Adrian McGuinness, Ireland
MARKET 9
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−
91.3FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
91.3 · ranked #3 here · career best 111
Official mark (OR)
88 · last won off 96
Record at today's distance
1 win from 18 tries · below market expectation (0.59)
Days since last run
20
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.1s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 105.11% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Adrian McGuinness, Ireland · 1137 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.9 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 8-1121/2299.2%1.09/6613.6%1.53
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦23/3307.0%0.957/1195.9%0.76
Too few runners to read reliably
In Class 1-3 company (small sample)0/300.0%0.01/147.1%1.39
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 111 at/around today's trip, clears the ~95.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 7
-0.15 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.8 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 7
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 7
105.1%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length6th of 7
7.07 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 May 26Carlisle11fGd/Frm2ndSlow early38.7 -0.26105.0+0.05
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.31slow2f+0.39slow3f+0.61slow4f+0.66slow5f+0.79very slow6f+0.59par7f+0.42fast1m+0.34par1m 1f+0.33par1m 2f+0.33very fast1m 3f+0.42very fast
Timed runs 2024-03-29 to 2026-05-30. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
8lb below his last winning mark (88 today vs 96)Drops in class todayRated #3 in this field (91.3)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“in touch, took second 1f out, ran on”
#3SALAMANCA CITY (IRE)MID
DRAW 5 · OR 84 · Daniel Muscutt / James Fanshawe
MARKET 5.2
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−
91.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
91.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 91
Official mark (OR)
84 · last won off 80
Record at today's distance
1 win from 2 tries · beats market expectation (2.72)
Days since last run
43
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.4s slower than par — the result flattered it · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 105.09% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Fanshawe · 819 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 8-1141/31213.1%0.8822/10820.4%1.28
On turf33/28911.4%0.824/9924.2%1.25
At this time of year (Q3)38/24615.4%0.976/2227.3%1.19
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 11f+ trips20/10419.2%1.035/3315.2%0.62
In Class 1-3 company ✦17/14212.0%0.935/5010.0%0.78
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ripon (small sample)—0/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 91 is below the ~95.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 7
+0.15 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 7
+0.08s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 7
105.1%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length7th of 7
6.98 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
5 Jun 26Goodwood11fGd/Sft1stFast early38.3 +0.31107.4+0.30
9 May 26Lingfield10fGd/Frm2ndFast early39.5 +0.24101.2+0.11
Timed runs 2025-08-21 to 2026-06-05. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (84 today vs 80)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayOnly 2 runs at this distanceHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“in touch, led on bridle over 1f out, tackled final 100 yds, just held on”
#4SPIORADALTAPROMINENT
DRAW 4 · OR 90 · Paul Mulrennan / Mark Walford
MARKET drifting 8.2 → 11
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
90.3FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
90.3 · ranked #5 here · career best 99
Official mark (OR)
90 · last won off 88
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.3s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 102.37% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Mark Walford · 408 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Ripon6/2821.4%1.935/1729.4%2.73
In Class 1-3 company2/229.1%0.931/1010.0%1.73
Coming back after 15 to 45 days11/1358.1%0.926/4812.5%1.54
In fields of 8-11 ✦14/1618.7%1.026/5211.5%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)16/14011.4%1.340/130.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
Over 11f+ trips (small sample)0/360.0%0.00/50.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 100 at/around today's trip, clears the ~95.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 7
+0.02 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 7
+0.16s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 7
102.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 7
7.12 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26Windsor11fGd/Frm6thTrue40.1 -0.38107.7—
12 Jun 26York10fGood11thTrue39.7 +0.19103.2+0.33
28 May 26Ripon9fGood1stTrue38.3 -0.75103.7—
7 May 26Chester10fGood8thTrue40.8 +1.32100.2+0.21
16 Apr 26Ripon9fGd/Sft1stTrue38.6 +0.0899.9+0.04
29 Mar 26Doncaster10fGd/Sft7thTrue36.1 -0.3399.5+0.07
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-03-29 to 2026-06-27. · 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 3 todayOnly 1 run at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (1.44x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the marketA course winner (4 from 7 here)Runs Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“off pace, under pressure over 2f out, switched approaching final 1f, never dangerous”
#5ELSASS (IRE)MID
DRAW 2 · OR 87 · Connor Beasley / Charlie Johnston
MARKET backed 8.4 → 5.4
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−
86FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
86 · ranked #6 here · career best 96
Official mark (OR)
87 · last won off 80
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 6 tries · beats market expectation (3.11)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.8s · best on the clock in its race Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 106.16% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Charlie Johnston · 2312 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: with the mark MARK-FALLING3+
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 1-3 company ✦41/5227.9%0.812/1517.9%0.74
Above their last winning mark ✦58/48811.9%0.8820/17011.8%0.81
Over 11f+ trips76/52614.4%1.0516/13611.8%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ripon (small sample)4/527.7%0.642/1118.2%0.97
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 98 at/around today's trip, clears the ~95.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 7
+0.28 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 7
+0.09s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 7
106.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 7
7.41 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
10 Oct 25Newmarket12fGd/Frm10thSlow early39.5 -0.63106.8+0.18
1 Oct 25Kempton Park10fStd2ndSlow early40.8 +0.68115.2+0.18
21 Aug 25Chelmsford City10fSlow1stTrue39.7 +0.63105.4+0.15
Timed runs 2025-08-21 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
7lb above his last winning mark (87 today vs 80)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 3 todayDrops in class todayStable cold this week — 2 wins from 25 runsHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“chased leader, went on over 2f out, soon clear”
#6YAFREHPROMINENT
DRAW 6 · OR 78 · Cam Hardie / Richard & Peter Fahey
MARKET drifting 4.9 → 7.8
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
84.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
84.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 84
Official mark (OR)
78 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
17
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 105.58% (strong late)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard & Peter Fahey · 377 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 8-11—23/17713.0%1.26
At this time of year (Q3)—6/5910.2%1.2
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 11f+ trips—0/130.0%0.0
At Ripon—2/336.1%0.56
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 84 is below the ~95.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields7th of 7
-0.30 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 40.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 7
+0.13s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 7
105.6%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 7
7.27 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-04-25 to 2026-07-01. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Only 3 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 4 wins from 21 runsRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led until over 2f out, ridden soon after, kept on”
#7PER CONTRA (IRE)HELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 7 · OR 82 · David Allan / Tim Easterby
MARKET backed 8.4 → 6.8
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−
74FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
74 · ranked #8 here · career best 95
Official mark (OR)
82 · last won off 83
Record at today's distance
1 win from 11 tries · beats market expectation (1.31)
Days since last run
7
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class Usually races midfield · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 104.32% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2889 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 11f+ trips16/1729.3%0.872/424.8%0.47
In Class 1-3 company ✦15/3754.0%0.637/1345.2%0.71
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 96 at/around today's trip, clears the ~95.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 7
+0.28 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 7
+0.73s
Slow away in 4 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed6th of 7
104.3%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 7
7.48 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26York10fGd/Frm20th—39.3 +0.38100.7+0.68—
25 Jun 26Newcastle10fSlow8thTrue40.2 +0.04112.5—
12 Jun 26York10fGood4thTrue40.2 +0.73103.3+0.46
30 May 26Carlisle11fGd/Frm3rdSlow early39.0 +0.02105.0+0.16
Timed runs 2026-04-12 to 2026-07-11. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 3 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 3 todayDrops in class todayProven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 1.31)Lost roughly 3.1 lengths at the start last timeCut 3lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRace-fit — ran 7 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market