THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 31.6%winner in the projected 1–2–3 65.4%136 races · latest settled day: #1 10/37, top-3 20/37forensic read: #1 28.6% · top-3 60.3% (63)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Measured on their own past openings, POET'S DAWN should reach the front first — roughly 2.4 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 50.36% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 4 at halfway, 0.36s off the lead. The measured order tops QITAAL on 84, 5pts clear of MIDNIGHT STRIKE (IRE). QITAAL: a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it. The shape danger is WILD VIOLET (FR) — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 6
QITAAL
OR 76 · Connor Beasley / Charlie Johnston
MARKET backed 5.1 → 3.1
84.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (84.0)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
MIDNIGHT STRIKE (IRE)
OR 80 · Silvestre De Sousa / Jennie Candlish
MARKET drifting 6.6 → 10.5
79.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−Rated #2 in this field (79.0)Historically underestimated by the market
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 4
WILD VIOLET (FR)
OR 77 · Oisin James Orr / Michael Bell
MARKET drifting 3.15 → 4.1
77.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (77.0)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1QITAALnet +6figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today
2WILD VIOLET (FR)net +6drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields
3POET'S DAWNnet +6race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), quickest early type, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (2 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–6
123456
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–6).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: QITAAL is 1/9 on softer ground · MIDNIGHT STRIKE (IRE) is 1/9 on softer ground · WILD VIOLET (FR) is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
MIDNIGHT STRIKE (IRE)HELD-UP50.8%98.9one-paced late — 4th of 6 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
QITAALMID49.3%104.6a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
YERMANTHERE (IRE)HELD-UP49.7%98.1held up without the late gear (6th of 6 on late speed), saving plenty for the finish — needs them to stop in front
WILD VIOLET (FR)MID47.1%108.2the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
LUCKY HERO (IRE)PROMINENT50.4%98.6concedes ~2.4L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
POET'S DAWNFRONT50.1%100.9the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — and holds on late
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
POET'S DAWNFRONTtypically ~2.8 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.15s off the field’s best
LUCKY HERO (IRE)PROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
measured on their own past openings, POET'S DAWN should reach the front first — roughly 2.4 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1QITAALMID
DRAW 6 · OR 76 · Connor Beasley / Charlie Johnston
MARKET backed 5.1 → 3.1
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 1−
84.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
84.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 94
Official mark (OR)
76 · last won off 77
Record at today's distance
1 win from 29 tries · below market expectation (0.28)
Days since last run
13
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.7s · best on the clock in its race Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.64% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Charlie Johnston · 2312 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: with the mark MARK-FALLING3+
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Below their last winning mark ✦5/618.2%0.754/557.3%0.7
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ripon (small sample)4/527.7%0.642/1118.2%0.97
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 94 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 6
-0.12 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 6
+0.08s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 6
104.6%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 6
7.30 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
5 Jul 26Ayr10fGood3rdTrue40.2 +0.30110.8+0.12
23 Jun 26Beverley9fGd/Frm3rdSlow early38.1 -0.05102.2+0.07
18 Jun 26Ripon9fGood2ndTrue39.2 -0.13103.7—
4 Jun 26Hamilton Park9fGood5thTrue38.1 -0.49103.7+0.09
25 May 26Leicester10fFirm2ndSlow early40.7 +0.10106.0+0.13
15 May 26Hamilton Park9fGood4thTrue39.5 -0.43101.4+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-05-15 to 2026-07-05. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (84.0)Stable cold this week — 2 wins from 25 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“handy, shaken up 3f out, one paced”
#2MIDNIGHT STRIKE (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 2 · OR 80 · Silvestre De Sousa / Jennie Candlish
MARKET drifting 6.6 → 10.5
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
79.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
79.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 93
Official mark (OR)
80 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 2 tries · beats market expectation (1.62)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.7s) Usually races held-up (one-paced) · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 98.93% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jennie Candlish · 483 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)16/12512.8%1.282/1020.0%1.49
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company25/16914.8%1.414/755.3%0.49
In fields of <=715/6622.7%1.212/229.1%0.55
On turf27/20113.4%1.326/738.2%0.74
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ripon (small sample)2/922.2%2.090/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 93 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 6
+0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 6
+0.42s
Slow away in 3 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed4th of 6
98.9%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 6
7.27 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
3 Jul 26Beverley8fGd/Frm1st—39.8 +0.0796.0-0.19—
27 Jun 26York10fGood8thTrue38.8 +0.17105.0+0.22
13 Jun 26York7fGood17thTrue40.1 +0.0097.8+0.29
30 May 26Chester7fGood11thTrue39.0 -0.0596.5+0.37
6 May 26Chester7fGood13thSlow early40.5 -0.15105.6+0.43
5 Oct 24Redcar5fSoft (Good To Soft In Places)18thTrue42.2 +0.2692.7+0.77
Timed runs 2024-10-05 to 2026-07-03. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (79.0)Only 2 runs at this distanceHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“always behind”
#3WILD VIOLET (FR)MID
DRAW 4 · OR 77 · Oisin James Orr / Michael Bell
MARKET drifting 3.15 → 4.1
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−
77.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
77.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 77
Official mark (OR)
77 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 3 tries · beats market expectation (3.28)
Days since last run
34
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.7s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races front-runner
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 108.24% (strong late)
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael Bell · 844 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Hector Crouch, with the retained rider up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On turf57/42313.5%1.0712/1229.8%0.71
Coming back after 15 to 45 days49/34214.3%1.0710/8411.9%0.77
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ripon (small sample)5/3016.7%1.141/714.3%0.82
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 79 is below the ~80.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 6
+0.27 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 6
+0.09s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 6
108.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length6th of 6
6.91 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
14 Jun 26Salisbury9fGood1stTrue38.0 +0.45110.8+0.00
11 May 26Wolverhampton9fStd2ndSlow early39.7 +0.34110.8+0.04
1 May 26Newmarket10fGood3rdTrue38.4 +0.01103.1+0.24
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.11par2f+0.14slow3f+0.04very slow4fledvery slow5fledslow6fledslow7fledpar1mledfast1m 1fledvery fast1m 2fledvery fast
Timed runs 2026-05-01 to 2026-06-14. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (77.0)Only 3 runs at this distanceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“chased leader after 1f, led before halfway, tackled over 1f out, asserted final ½f, ridden out”
#4YERMANTHERE (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 3 · OR 68 · David Allan / Tim Easterby
MARKET drifting 4.4 → 5.2
71.7FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
71.7 · ranked #4 here · career best 96
Official mark (OR)
68 · last won off 65
Record at today's distance
1 win from 7 tries · beats market expectation (1.58)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.4s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races held-up closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 98.13% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2889 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 96 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 6
+0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 37.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 6
+0.33s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 6
98.1%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 6
6.92 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 Jun 26Pontefract10fGood2nd—37.3 +0.7697.9+0.23—
18 Jun 26Ripon9fGood1stTrue39.4 +0.04104.2—
8 Jun 26Carlisle9fGd/Sft5thFast early37.1 +0.6097.1+0.40
27 May 26Beverley7fGd/Frm10thTrue39.3 -0.4094.1+0.26
5 Nov 25Musselburgh8fSoft5thTrue36.3 -0.2895.4+0.42
2 Oct 25Nottingham8fGd/Sft5thTrue38.2 -0.27100.0+0.34
Timed runs 2025-10-02 to 2026-06-29. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (68 today vs 65)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 2 here)
LTO comment
“held up, wide, ridden when forced wide again home turn, rallied well inside final 1f, took second close home, no match for winner”
#5POET'S DAWNFRONT
DRAW 5 · OR 66 · S. B. Kirrane / Tim Easterby
MARKET drifting 12 → 15.5
70.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
70.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 78
Official mark (OR)
66 · last won off 65
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 35 tries · beats market expectation (1.23)
Days since last run
12
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) Usually races front-runner
Career sheet · last 18 months · 27 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2889 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 78 is below the ~80.0 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 6
-0.16 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 6
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 6
100.9%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 6
6.96 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Ripon8fGood3rdTrue38.8 +0.0099.0—
18 Jun 26Ripon9fGood6thTrue38.8 -0.62100.5—
12 Jun 26York10fGood6thTrue39.2 -0.15104.1-0.07
5 Jun 26Musselburgh8fGood1stTrue38.1 -0.18101.6+0.65
27 May 26Beverley8fGd/Frm4thTrue37.9 -0.0298.2+0.09
17 May 26Ripon9fGood1stTrue38.1 +0.03102.0-0.08
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-05-17 to 2026-07-06. · 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayProven over the trip (35 tries, beats market expectation at 1.23)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 12 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 19 here)Runs Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led 2f, stayed prominent, not clear run 2f out, beaten 1f out”
#6LUCKY HERO (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 1 · OR 76 · Mark Winn / David O'Meara
MARKET backed 11.5 → 10.5
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
69.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
69.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 80 · earned over 7.6/7.0/7.0f — never rated near today's distance (untested here)
Official mark (OR)
76 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
36
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.3s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races prominent
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David O'Meara · 2009 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Ripon13/7816.7%0.993/2213.6%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)90/65213.8%1.043/575.3%0.42
Coming back after 15 to 45 days107/79313.5%1.1116/2157.4%0.69
Can it do what today needs? Unproven at this trip — its 80 was earned OFF-TRIP and it has NEVER been rated at today's distance; no evidence it can hit the ~80.0 demand here
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 6
-0.17 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 6
-0.02s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 5
Finish · closing speed5th of 6
98.6%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 6
7.28 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
12 Jun 26Chester7fSoft4thSlow early36.5 -0.0395.6+0.00
Timed runs 2025-07-18 to 2026-06-12. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayRating earned over 7.6/7.0/7.0f, not today's distance — never rated near today's trip (untested at this distance)Stable cold this week — 1 wins from 20 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“prominent, shaken up over 2f out, challenged soon after, faded straight”