THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 31.6%winner in the projected 1–2–3 65.4%136 races · latest settled day: #1 10/37, top-3 20/37forensic read: #1 28.6% · top-3 60.3% (63)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Measured on their own past openings, GARDEN OASIS should reach the front first — roughly 1.1 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 49.35% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 3 at halfway, 0.24s off the lead. The measured order tops CADARN (IRE) on 93, 4.3pts clear of JIMMY SPEAKING. CADARN (IRE): solid late gains (4th of 7 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The shape danger is BEN LAWERS — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 6
CADARN (IRE)
OR 85 · Shane Gray / Kevin Ryan
MARKET 5.9
93.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (93.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
JIMMY SPEAKING
OR 84 · Silvestre De Sousa / Chris Dwyer
MARKET backed 2.96 → 2.54
88.7FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (88.7)Proven over the trip (17 tries, beats market expectation at 1.35)
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 7
FARASI LANE (IRE)
OR 78 · Aiden Brookes / Micky Hammond
MARKET 34
82.3FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (82.3)Jockey goes well at this track (1.6x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the market
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1JIMMY SPEAKINGnet +8figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip
2GARDEN OASISnet +6race-fit (ran <=45d), backed since morning, quickest early type, sharp from the stalls, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip
3CADARN (IRE)net +5figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, energy in the winning band, proven at trip − habitually slow away, yard cold
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
JESMOND DAWN (IRE) FIGURE #4
won last time out, and Grant Tuer is among the in-form yards this fortnight (10 runs).
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (3 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 7 runners · stalls 1–7
1234567
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 2.0 of 7, field average 4.0).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: CADARN (IRE) is 0/2 on softer ground · JIMMY SPEAKING is 1/3 on softer ground · FARASI LANE (IRE) is 1/5 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
CADARN (IRE)MID49.7%100.8solid late gains (4th of 7 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
JIMMY SPEAKINGPROMINENT50.3%99.4just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late
FARASI LANE (IRE)MID49.0%101.8the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
SIR PAUL RAMSEYPROMINENT49.5%101.2concedes ~2.4L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — and holds on late
BEN LAWERSHELD-UP49.0%103.6the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
GARDEN OASISFRONT51.3%100.2the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
JESMOND DAWN (IRE)MID51.1%97.7held up without the late gear (7th of 7 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
GARDEN OASISFRONTtypically ~3.4 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
JIMMY SPEAKINGPROMINENTtypically ~2.3 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.10s off the field’s best
SIR PAUL RAMSEYPROMINENTtypically ~1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.09s off the field’s best
measured on their own past openings, GARDEN OASIS should reach the front first — roughly 1.1 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1CADARN (IRE)MID
DRAW 6 · OR 85 · Shane Gray / Kevin Ryan
MARKET 5.9
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
93.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
93.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 93
Official mark (OR)
85 · last won off 82
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 7 tries · beats market expectation (3.54)
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.0s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.78% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Kevin Ryan · 1206 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 7-8f trips21/2618.0%0.7810/6714.9%1.28
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=729/16517.6%1.054/606.7%0.39
At this time of year (Q3)37/4218.8%0.92/336.1%0.64
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ripon (small sample)3/2611.5%1.510/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 95 at/around today's trip, clears the ~89.3 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 7
+0.18 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 7
+0.49s
Slow away in 5 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed4th of 7
100.8%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 7
7.54 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26York7fGood1stTrue40.0 -0.09101.8+0.26
15 May 26York10fGood14thTrue38.7 +0.31101.6+0.77
20 Apr 26Redcar7fGd/Frm5thTrue41.8 +0.4396.2+0.37
28 Mar 26Doncaster8fGd/Sft13thTrue37.7 +0.09100.5+0.42
19 Aug 25Kempton Park7fStd4thTrue39.8 +0.35104.4+0.56
28 Jun 25York7fGood12thTrue41.0 -0.04100.2+0.57
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-06-28 to 2026-06-27. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (85 today vs 82)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (93.0)Improving fast — last run rated 93, 13pts above his recent average of 79.7Stable cold this week — 0 wins from 12 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“reared stalls, off pace, shaken up under 3f out, weakened approaching final 1f, eased”
#2JIMMY SPEAKINGPROMINENT
DRAW 1 · OR 84 · Silvestre De Sousa / Chris Dwyer
MARKET backed 2.96 → 2.54
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
88.7FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
88.7 · ranked #2 here · career best 91
Official mark (OR)
84 · last won off 82
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 17 tries · beats market expectation (1.35)
Days since last run
43
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.8s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Chris Dwyer · 206 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)4/547.4%0.651/520.0%2.08
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days7/888.0%0.571/263.8%0.3
In fields of <=75/2817.9%0.832/1513.3%0.68
On turf10/8611.6%0.764/3611.1%0.84
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ripon (small sample)0/10.0%0.0—
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 92 at/around today's trip, clears the ~89.3 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 7
-0.19 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 7
+0.10s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 7
99.4%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 7
7.56 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
5 Jun 26Epsom Downs8fGd/Sft9thFast early39.0 -0.73101.8+0.19
16 May 26Newmarket8fGood2ndTrue40.1 -0.1598.6+0.07
Timed runs 2025-09-26 to 2026-06-05. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (88.7)Proven over the trip (17 tries, beats market expectation at 1.35)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, under pressure over 2f out, one paced”
#3FARASI LANE (IRE)MID
DRAW 7 · OR 78 · Aiden Brookes / Micky Hammond
MARKET 34
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−
82.3FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
82.3 · ranked #3 here · career best 97
Official mark (OR)
78 · last won off 79
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 35 tries · beats market expectation (1.19)
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.8s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 101.81% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 21 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Micky Hammond · 320 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 10.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company6/857.1%1.260/110.0%0.0
Over 7-8f trips2/842.4%0.560/80.0%0.0
Below their last winning mark0/160.0%0.00/60.0%0.0
On turf10/1576.4%0.870/240.0%0.0
In fields of <=72/494.1%0.410/150.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days7/1235.7%0.831/293.4%0.58
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ripon (small sample)1/175.9%0.830/30.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)3/863.5%0.480/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 97 at/around today's trip, clears the ~89.3 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 7
+0.33 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 7
+0.32s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed2nd of 7
101.8%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 7
7.23 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-03-31 to 2026-07-02. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (82.3)Jockey goes well at this track (1.6x market expectation)Lost roughly 2.0 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“dwelt, mid-field, progress 2f out, no extra late on”
#4JESMOND DAWN (IRE)MID
DRAW 5 · OR 70 · Andrew Mullen / Grant Tuer
MARKET drifting 5 → 5.6
Yard suits today’s conditions · 7+ / 0−
77.0FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
77.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 77
Official mark (OR)
70 · last won off 65
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 30 tries · below market expectation (0.7)
Days since last run
12
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Career sheet · last 18 months · 22 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Grant Tuer · 698 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: off a TFR-RISING figure trend, as an exposed handicapper
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)19/18510.3%0.915/1435.7%3.61
Over 7-8f trips24/2559.4%1.010/5318.9%2.32
Above their last winning mark15/1649.1%0.7910/4323.3%2.31
On turf32/3569.0%0.8816/7621.1%2.02
Coming back after 8 to 14 days16/1679.6%0.896/3218.8%1.95
In Class 4-5 company33/3399.7%0.9612/7316.4%1.71
In fields of <=720/12516.0%1.213/2114.3%1.37
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ripon (small sample)5/4112.2%1.133/742.9%3.86
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 78 is below the ~89.3 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 7
+0.33 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 7
+0.13s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 7
97.7%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 7
7.41 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Ripon8fGood1stTrue39.7 +0.90100.5+0.10
3 Jul 26Beverley7fGd/Frm5th—40.0 +0.2199.0+0.00—
19 Jun 26Redcar7fGood3rdTrue40.4 +0.1696.4+0.09
3 Jun 26Ripon8fGood2ndTrue39.9 +0.3598.3—
6 Feb 26Newcastle7fStd7thTrue40.6 +0.2696.8+0.28
29 Dec 25Newcastle8fStd10thFast early38.6 +0.1295.3+0.19
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-12-29 to 2026-07-06. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (70 today vs 65)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayImproving fast — last run rated 77, 10pts above his recent average of 67.0Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 12 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (2 from 7 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“tracked pace, ridden 2f out, one paced”
#5GARDEN OASISFRONT
DRAW 3 · OR 72 · David Allan / Tim Easterby
MARKET backed 8.6 → 7.8
70.7FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
70.7 · ranked #5 here · career best 88
Official mark (OR)
72 · last won off 80
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 33 tries · beats market expectation (1.51)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class Usually races prominent and weakens · clock read is off a superseded run
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2889 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 88 is below the ~89.3 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields7th of 7
-0.29 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 7
-0.10s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 4
Finish · closing speed5th of 7
100.2%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length7th of 7
7.17 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 Jun 26Pontefract8fGood4th—37.5 -0.2299.2-0.05—
15 Jun 26Wetherby8fGd/Frm5thTrue39.3 -0.92105.6-0.12
28 May 26Ripon9fGood8thTrue38.4 -0.67101.1—
20 May 26Ayr8fGd/Frm3rdFast early39.5 -0.8296.2-0.21
Timed runs 2026-04-29 to 2026-06-29. · 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
8lb below his last winning mark (72 today vs 80)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayProven over the trip (33 tries, beats market expectation at 1.51)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (2 from 16 here)Runs Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led, pushed along soon after halfway, headed over 1f out, no extra”
#6BEN LAWERSHELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 4 · OR 76 · Harry Russell / Simon Waugh
MARKET drifting 22 → 50
69.3FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
69.3 · ranked #6 here · career best 91 · earned over 10.3/10.0/10.5f — but has run to 91 at today's distance, proven here (rating understates him)
Official mark (OR)
76 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 7 tries · beats market expectation (1.06)
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.4s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 103.57% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Simon Waugh
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Proven at the trip — has run to 91 at today's distance, clears the ~89.3 demand (career best 91 came off-trip)
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 7
+0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.3 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph7th of 7
+0.83s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 7
103.6%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length5th of 7
7.28 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26York10fGood14thTrue38.7 +0.09101.6+1.00
3 Apr 26Lingfield8fStd6thTrue41.3 +0.00105.5+0.66
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-04-03 to 2026-06-27. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rating earned over 10.3/10.0/10.5f, but he has run to 91 at today's distance — proven at this trip (his rating understates him here)Lost roughly 4.5 lengths at the start last timeCut 3lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“slowly away, mid-division, brief effort early in straight, ridden approaching final 1f, no further impression”
#7SIR PAUL RAMSEYPROMINENT
DRAW 2 · OR 77 · Jack Callan / Charlie Johnston
MARKET drifting 9.6 → 11
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−
56.3FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
56.3 · ranked #7 here · career best 97
Official mark (OR)
77 · last won off 82
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 16 tries · beats market expectation (1.37)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.3s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races prominent and weakens · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 101.23% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Charlie Johnston · 2312 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: with the mark MARK-FALLING3+
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Below their last winning mark ✦5/618.2%0.754/557.3%0.7
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦104/85612.1%0.9922/2329.5%0.8
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ripon (small sample)4/527.7%0.642/1118.2%0.97
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 95 at/around today's trip, clears the ~89.3 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 7
-0.14 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 7
+0.09s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 7
101.2%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length3rd of 7
7.53 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Mar 26Wolverhampton8fStandard3rdSlow early39.5 +0.00109.0-0.08
Timed runs 2026-03-13 to 2026-06-29. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
5lb below his last winning mark (77 today vs 82)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayProven over the trip (16 tries, beats market expectation at 1.37)Stable cold this week — 2 wins from 25 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“tracked pace, pushed along entering straight, weakened over 1f out”