FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Ripon · 17:35
Class 6 · 6f · Good (Good to Firm in places)
GENERATED 2026-07-18 · 11 RUNNERS PROFILED
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 31.6%winner in the projected 1–2–3 65.4%136 races · latest settled day: #1 10/37, top-3 20/37forensic read: #1 28.6% · top-3 60.3% (63)
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners at this course and distance typically spend 50.41% of their energy before the final 2f and sit around 3 at halfway, 0.14s off the lead. The measured order tops OASIS COVER on 66, 4pts clear of JACK RABBIT SLIMS. OASIS COVER: the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 6
OASIS COVER
OR 60 · Aiden Brookes / Micky Hammond
MARKET drifting 20 → 40
66.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−The top rating in this field (66.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.6x market expectation)
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 2
JACK RABBIT SLIMS
OR 59 · Tom Eaves / Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood
MARKET drifting 11 → 28
62 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−Rated #2 in this field (62)Race-fit — ran 4 days agoRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 8
GET UP EVERYBODY (IRE)
OR 58 · Paul Mulrennan / Paul Midgley
MARKET drifting 3.95 → 4.8
61.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−Rated #3 in this field (61.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.44x market expectation)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1LONG SHOTnet +6race-fit (ran <=45d), top-2 late speed today, quickest early type, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here
2INDY'S ANGELnet +6race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band
3OASIS COVERnet +5figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 late speed today, sharp from the stalls
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
ACT OF VIOLENCE  FIGURE #5
Tony Carroll's runners in Class 6-7 company win 13.7% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Tony Carroll's runners kept to the same class win 13.7% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
MISTER SKY BLUE (IRE)  FIGURE #9
Gemma Tutty's runners kept to the same class win 12.7% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Gemma Tutty's runners coming back after 15 to 45 days win 12.5% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (3 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 11 runners · stalls 1–11
1234567891011
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–11).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: OASIS COVER is unraced on softer ground · JACK RABBIT SLIMS is 0/4 on softer ground · GET UP EVERYBODY (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
SERGEANT MAYER (IRE) HELD-UP 50.5% 98.2 held up without the late gear (5th of 11 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
GET UP EVERYBODY (IRE) MID 51.1% 97.7 held up without the late gear (7th of 11 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
VON TROTTER MID 51.4% 97.5 held up without the late gear (8th of 11 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
OASIS COVER MID 49.1% 101.5 the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
ACT OF VIOLENCE MID 49.8% 98.4 held up without the late gear (4th of 11 on late speed), saving plenty for the finish — needs them to stop in front
JACK RABBIT SLIMS PROMINENT 51.1% 97.8 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
MISTER SKY BLUE (IRE) MID 51.2% 97.3 held up without the late gear (10th of 11 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
HURSTWOOD MID 51.3% 97.4 held up without the late gear (9th of 11 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
INDY'S ANGEL MID 50.5% 97.0 held up without the late gear (11th of 11 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
LONG SHOT PROMINENT 50.9% 98.9 the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
LADY BOUQUET PROMINENT 50.3% 98.6 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
LONG SHOTPROMINENTtypically ~1.4 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
JACK RABBIT SLIMSPROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
LADY BOUQUETPROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.09s off the field’s best
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 OASIS COVER MID
DRAW 6 · OR 60 · Aiden Brookes / Micky Hammond
MARKET drifting 20 → 40
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
66.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
66.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 66
Official mark (OR)
60 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 6 tries
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 101.45% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 6610thClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 263rdClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 636thClass 5 · 5.1f · rated 515thClass 5 · 6.1f · rated 57
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for OASIS COVERbest 66needs 62.3–662025-11-03 · TFR 55 · 6.07f · Std · C52025-11-24 · TFR 57 · 6.09f · Std/Slow · C52025-12-13 · TFR 51 · 5.1f · Slow · C52026-05-09 · TFR 63 · 5.04f · Good · C62026-05-19 · TFR 26 · 5f · Std · C62026-06-20 · TFR 66 · 5.99f · Good · C63 Nov 2520 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Micky Hammond · 320 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 10.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On turf10/1576.4%0.870/240.0%0.0
In Class 6-7 company9/1675.4%0.81/462.2%0.32
In fields of 8-1112/1527.9%1.361/313.2%0.5
Coming back after 15 to 45 days7/1235.7%0.831/293.4%0.58
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ripon (small sample)1/175.9%0.830/30.0%0.0
Over 5-6f trips (small sample)1/205.0%1.380/40.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)3/863.5%0.480/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 66 at/around today's trip, clears the ~62.3 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields8th of 11
-0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 11
+0.02s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 11
101.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length10th of 11
7.35 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Jun 26Redcar5fGood2ndTrue42.3 +0.2899.0+0.02
19 May 26Newcastle5fStd10thTrue41.1 -0.1199.9+0.04
9 May 26Nottingham5fGood3rdTrue41.3 -0.11102.7+0.15
13 Dec 25Wolverhampton5fSlow6thTrue40.5 -0.23101.9+0.04
24 Nov 25Wolverhampton6fStd/Slow5thTrue40.6 -0.3499.5+0.00
3 Nov 25Southwell6fStd5thTrue39.9 -0.02105.8-0.11
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.37par2f+0.55fast3f+0.53par4f+0.52slow5f+0.31slow6f+0.21par
Timed runs 2025-11-03 to 2026-06-20. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
The top rating in this field (66.0)Improving fast — last run rated 66, 14pts above his recent average of 51.7Jockey goes well at this track (1.6x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“mid-division, switched under 2f out, headway soon after, stayed on final 1f, took second post”
#2 JACK RABBIT SLIMS PROMINENT
DRAW 2 · OR 59 · Tom Eaves / Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood
MARKET drifting 11 → 28
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
62 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
62 · ranked #2 here · career best 66
Official mark (OR)
59 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 13 tries
Days since last run
4
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 97.75% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 602ndClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 664thClass 6 · 5.8f · rated 604thClass 5 · 5.0f · rated 562ndClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 64
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for JACK RABBIT SLIMSbest 66needs 62.3–662025-05-03 · TFR 43 · 5f · Good · C52025-06-16 · TFR 62 · 5.83f · Gd/Sft · C52025-07-18 · TFR 55 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C42025-07-29 · TFR 35 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C52025-09-17 · TFR 57 · 5f · Soft · C52025-09-24 · TFR 38 · 5.99f · Good · C52026-04-08 · TFR 56 · 5f · Good · C52026-04-30 · TFR 50 · 6.07f · Std · C62026-05-12 · TFR 64 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C62026-05-25 · TFR 56 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52026-06-15 · TFR 60 · 5.83f · Good · C62026-06-23 · TFR 66 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C62026-07-14 · TFR 60 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C63 May 2514 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood · 297 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)10/8012.5%1.551/911.1%1.24
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after within 7 days4/2615.4%1.030/60.0%0.0
Over 5-6f trips5/855.9%0.731/422.4%0.35
On turf17/15011.3%1.342/583.4%0.44
In Class 6-7 company10/9210.9%0.953/506.0%0.77
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ripon (small sample)6/2920.7%2.10/50.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 66 at/around today's trip, clears the ~62.3 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields7th of 11
-0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 11
+0.00s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 3 of 6
Finish · closing speed6th of 11
97.8%
One-paced late
Stride length9th of 11
7.36 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
14 Jul 26Beverley5fGd/Frm4thTrue40.2 -0.0598.4+0.04
23 Jun 26Beverley5fGd/Frm2ndTrue41.6 +0.52100.6-0.22
15 Jun 26Carlisle5fGood4thTrue41.1 -0.0194.8-0.14
25 May 26Redcar5fGd/Frm4thFast early44.1 -0.2197.6-0.06
12 May 26Beverley5fGd/Frm2ndFast early39.5 -0.0796.0+0.07
30 Apr 26Southwell6fStd8thTrue39.8 -0.4499.2+0.33
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.14par2f+0.12par3f+0.13par4f+0.11par5f+0.44slow
Timed runs 2026-04-30 to 2026-07-14. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #2 in this field (62)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 4 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“pressed leader, effort over 1f out, no extra final 100 yds, lost place post”
#3 GET UP EVERYBODY (IRE) MID
DRAW 8 · OR 58 · Paul Mulrennan / Paul Midgley
MARKET drifting 3.95 → 4.8
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
61.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
61.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 72
Official mark (OR)
58 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 11 tries
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 97.74% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 617thClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 544thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 683rdClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 683rdClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 68
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for GET UP EVERYBODY (IRE)best 72needs 62.3–662025-04-17 · TFR 61 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-05 · TFR 62 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-26 · TFR 65 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-18 · TFR 64 · 6.08f · Good · C52025-08-08 · TFR 72 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C62025-09-11 · TFR 50 · 6f · Slow · C52025-10-02 · TFR 68 · 5f · Slow · C62026-04-07 · TFR 68 · 5.01f · Gd/Sft · C62026-05-18 · TFR 68 · 5.99f · Gd/Frm · C62026-05-29 · TFR 54 · 5f · Good · C62026-07-03 · TFR 61 · 6.01f · Gd/Frm · C617 Apr 253 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Paul Midgley · 841 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 8-11 ✦42/37311.3%1.0510/8511.8%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 6-7 company31/22613.7%1.153/329.4%0.8
At this time of year (Q3)28/24011.7%1.022/2010.0%0.84
Coming back after 15 to 45 days45/39811.3%1.039/929.8%0.85
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ripon (small sample)5/529.6%0.881/911.1%0.98
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 71 at/around today's trip, clears the ~62.3 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 11
-0.02 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 11
+0.10s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 11
97.7%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 11
7.62 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
3 Jul 26Doncaster6fGd/Frm5thTrue41.3 +0.18102.5+0.00
29 May 26Carlisle5fGood7thTrue40.7 -0.3297.5+0.02
18 May 26Redcar5fGd/Frm4thTrue42.8 +0.0097.1+0.02
7 Apr 26Pontefract5fGd/Sft3rdFast early41.1 +0.4696.6+0.26
2 Oct 25Newcastle5fSlow3rdFast early42.8 -0.3399.4+0.25
11 Sep 25Newcastle6fSlow8thFast early41.2 -0.0893.4+0.02
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.52slow2f+0.43slow3f+0.32par4f+0.24par5f+0.30par6f+0.51fast
Timed runs 2025-09-11 to 2026-07-03. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #3 in this field (61.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.44x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“in touch, weakened over 1f out”
#4 LONG SHOT PROMINENT
DRAW 10 · OR 52 · David Allan / Tim Easterby
MARKET drifting 9.6 → 11
55.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
55.3 · ranked #4 here · career best 60
Official mark (OR)
52 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 10 tries
Days since last run
12
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races front-runner
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 98.89% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 522ndClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 604thClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 542ndClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 578thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 43
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for LONG SHOTneeds 62.3–66best 602025-08-23 · TFR 30 · 5.99f · Good · C52025-09-06 · TFR 45 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C22025-09-17 · TFR 46 · 5f · Soft · C52025-10-14 · TFR 42 · 6f · Std · C62026-04-20 · TFR 60 · 5.99f · Gd/Frm · C62026-05-07 · TFR 43 · 5.99f · Good · C62026-05-18 · TFR 57 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C62026-05-26 · TFR 54 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C62026-06-22 · TFR 60 · 5.96f · Firm · C62026-07-06 · TFR 52 · 6f · Good · C623 Aug 256 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2889 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 62 is below the ~62.3 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 11
-0.00 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 11
+0.04s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 11
98.9%
One-paced late
Stride length6th of 11
7.58 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Ripon6fGood4thTrue41.8 +0.0195.3—
22 Jun 26Catterick Bridge5fFirm2ndTrue39.6 -0.26102.7+0.02
26 May 26Redcar7fGd/Frm4thTrue40.2 -0.2599.5-0.15
18 May 26Redcar7fGd/Frm2ndTrue39.5 +0.04100.7+0.09
7 May 26Redcar5fGood8thTrue42.1 -0.1395.5+0.03
20 Apr 26Redcar5fGd/Frm3rdTrue41.6 +0.5999.7+0.23
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.12fast2f+0.18fast3f+0.21par4f+0.25par5f+0.41slow6f+0.70very slow
Timed runs 2026-04-20 to 2026-07-06. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 12 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“disputed lead, pushed along 2f out, went on final 50 yds, headed close home”
#5 ACT OF VIOLENCE MID
DRAW 5 · OR 54 · Silvestre De Sousa / Tony Carroll
MARKET backed 9 → 6
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
52.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
52.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
54 · last won off 66
Record at today's distance
1 win from 19 tries · below market expectation (0.46)
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s)
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 98.44% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 6 · 5.1f · rated 528thClass 6 · 7.1f · rated 466thClass 6 · 7.2f · rated 579thClass 6 · 6.1f · rated 276thClass 6 · 6.1f · rated 65
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ACT OF VIOLENCEbest 80needs 62.3–662025-04-09 · TFR 57 · 5.96f · Good · C52025-05-19 · TFR 47 · 5.83f · Gd/Frm · C42025-09-17 · TFR 49 · 5f · Soft · C42025-10-02 · TFR 48 · 6.08f · Gd/Sft · C22025-10-17 · TFR 62 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C52025-10-27 · TFR 65 · 5.99f · Gd/Sft · C62025-11-24 · TFR 65 · 6.09f · Std/Slow · C62025-12-08 · TFR 27 · 6.09f · Slow · C62025-12-27 · TFR 57 · 7.16f · Slow · C62026-01-22 · TFR 46 · 7.06f · Std · C62026-06-27 · TFR 52 · 5.07f · Gd/Frm · C69 Apr 2527 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tony Carroll · 2384 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Signature angle: at Bath, above their last winning mark, at this time of year (Q2), on turf, off a TFR-FALLING figure trend, with the mark MARK-FLAT, with a CLAIM-7 claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Below their last winning mark11/1656.7%0.6718/9818.4%1.46
On turf ✦97/70713.7%1.246/22820.2%1.41
Over 5-6f trips ✦95/63714.9%1.2246/27716.6%1.19
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3) ✦51/49310.3%0.955/4910.2%0.78
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ripon (small sample)—2/2100.0%4.97
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~62.3 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields9th of 11
-0.11 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 11
+0.13s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 11
98.4%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 11
7.64 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26Chepstow5fGd/Frm4thTrue41.9 +0.0599.5+0.14
22 Jan 26Southwell7fStd8thTrue38.6 -0.52101.0+0.00
27 Dec 25Wolverhampton7fSlow6thTrue39.4 +0.0398.0+0.12
8 Dec 25Wolverhampton6fSlow9thTrue41.4 +0.5195.4+0.16
24 Nov 25Wolverhampton6fStd/Slow6thTrue40.4 -0.84100.6+0.39
27 Oct 25Redcar5fGd/Sft4thTrue40.8 +0.0996.2-0.04
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.34par2f+0.37par3f+0.24par4f+0.29slow5f+0.53slow
Timed runs 2025-10-27 to 2026-06-27. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
12lb below his last winning mark (54 today vs 66)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 3 here)
LTO comment
“prominent, ridden under 2f out, weakening when hampered 1f out”
#6 INDY'S ANGEL MID
DRAW 4 · OR 47 · Connor Beasley / Philip Kirby
MARKET backed 11.5 → 8
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
52.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
52.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 58
Official mark (OR)
47 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 20 tries
Days since last run
10
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 97.0% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 522ndClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 5411thClass 6 · 7.4f · rated 308thClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 298thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 40
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for INDY'S ANGELneeds 62.3–66best 582025-04-23 · TFR 54 · 5f · Good · C52025-05-12 · TFR 58 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-25 · TFR 14 · 6f · Good · C52025-08-05 · TFR 49 · 5.96f · Gd/Frm · C62025-08-18 · TFR 48 · 5.96f · Gd/Frm · C62025-09-01 · TFR 46 · 5f · Good · C62025-09-26 · TFR 56 · 5f · Slow · C62025-10-09 · TFR 51 · 6f · Slow · C62025-10-24 · TFR 35 · 6.07f · Std · C62026-04-08 · TFR 41 · 5.96f · Good · C52026-04-20 · TFR 33 · 6f · Std · C62026-05-07 · TFR 40 · 5.99f · Good · C62026-05-21 · TFR 29 · 7.03f · Good · C62026-06-16 · TFR 30 · 7.44f · Good · C62026-07-01 · TFR 54 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C62026-07-08 · TFR 52 · 7.03f · Gd/Frm · C623 Apr 258 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Philip Kirby · 579 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.1 on the exchange
Signature angle: off a steady mark, at this time of year (Q2)
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)11/1676.6%0.942/1811.1%1.5
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days10/9610.4%1.082/395.1%0.52
On turf ✦15/2296.6%0.923/763.9%0.55
Over 5-6f trips11/1527.2%0.923/614.9%0.64
In fields of 8-11 ✦16/2446.6%0.836/1035.8%0.66
In Class 6-7 company ✦21/2488.5%0.918/1147.0%0.76
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ripon (small sample)0/120.0%0.00/60.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 58 is below the ~62.3 the race demands
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 11
+0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph10th of 11
+0.20s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed11th of 11
97.0%
One-paced late
Stride length7th of 11
7.53 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
8 Jul 26Catterick Bridge7fGd/Frm2nd—42.1 +0.5198.1+0.07—
1 Jul 26Thirsk6fGd/Frm2ndTrue42.2 +0.2596.3-0.04
16 Jun 26Beverley7fGood11thFast early39.8 -0.2992.8+0.15
21 May 26Catterick Bridge7fGood8th—40.4 -0.3595.2+0.27
7 May 26Redcar5fGood8thTrue41.9 +0.34100.9+0.55
20 Apr 26Newcastle6fStd7thTrue41.4 +0.0098.7+0.18
Timed runs 2026-04-20 to 2026-07-08. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 10 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“chased leader, pushed along 2f out, left behind by winner final 1f, no extra late on”
#7 LADY BOUQUET PROMINENT
DRAW 9 · OR 46 · Cam Hardie / Philip Kirby
MARKET 18
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
51 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
51 · ranked #7 here · career best 69
Official mark (OR)
46 · last won off 48
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 34 tries · beats market expectation (1.45)
Days since last run
2
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 98.58% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 473rdClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 524thClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 546thClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 443rdClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 52
Career sheet · last 18 months · 21 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for LADY BOUQUETbest 69needs 62.3–662025-05-04 · TFR 46 · 5.03f · Gd/Frm · C62025-05-28 · TFR 40 · 5f · Good · C62025-06-07 · TFR 50 · 6.01f · Gd/Frm · C62025-06-19 · TFR 50 · 5.5f · Gd/Frm · C62025-07-16 · TFR 60 · 5f · Good · C62025-07-27 · TFR 55 · 6f · Good · C62025-08-18 · TFR 57 · 5.96f · Gd/Frm · C62025-08-27 · TFR 36 · 5.96f · Gd/Frm · C62025-09-25 · TFR 45 · 6f · Slow · C62025-10-13 · TFR 16 · 5f · Good · C62025-10-28 · TFR 46 · 6.09f · Slow · C62025-12-01 · TFR 29 · 5.1f · Slow · C62025-12-06 · TFR 53 · 6.09f · Slow · C62025-12-19 · TFR 37 · 5f · Std · C62026-01-06 · TFR 34 · 6.09f · Slow · C62026-01-26 · TFR 25 · 6.09f · Std · C62026-05-11 · TFR 52 · 5f · Good · C62026-05-26 · TFR 44 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C62026-06-08 · TFR 54 · 5.01f · Good · C62026-06-29 · TFR 52 · 6f · Good · C62026-07-16 · TFR 47 · 6.03f · Gd/Frm · C64 May 2516 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Philip Kirby · 579 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.1 on the exchange
Signature angle: off a steady mark, at this time of year (Q2)
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)11/1676.6%0.942/1811.1%1.5
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Below their last winning mark3/417.3%1.481/392.6%0.34
On turf ✦15/2296.6%0.923/763.9%0.55
Over 5-6f trips11/1527.2%0.923/614.9%0.64
In fields of 8-11 ✦16/2446.6%0.836/1035.8%0.66
In Class 6-7 company ✦21/2488.5%0.918/1147.0%0.76
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ripon (small sample)0/120.0%0.00/60.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 69 at/around today's trip, clears the ~62.3 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields10th of 11
-0.22 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 41.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 11
+0.09s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 11
98.6%
One-paced late
Stride length8th of 11
7.37 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 Jul 26Hamilton Park6fGd/Frm4thTrue43.3 -0.1794.4+0.26
29 Jun 26Pontefract6fGood3rd—38.3 -0.1299.8-0.01—
8 Jun 26Pontefract5fGood4thTrue39.4 -0.84102.3+0.01
26 May 26Redcar5fGd/Frm6thTrue42.2 -0.36102.0+0.00
11 May 26Catterick Bridge5fGood3rdFast early41.7 -0.1998.6+0.26
26 Jan 26Wolverhampton6fStd10thFast early40.9 +0.3494.4+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.21par2f+0.07fast3f+0.10par4f+0.09par5f+0.04slow6f+0.43very slow
Timed runs 2026-01-26 to 2026-07-16. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
2lb below his last winning mark (46 today vs 48)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayProven over the trip (34 tries, beats market expectation at 1.45)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 2 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“close up, chased leader from 2f out, wandered, no extra final 1f”
#8 SERGEANT MAYER (IRE) HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 11 · OR 58 · Alex Jary / Nigel Tinkler
MARKET backed 22 → 12
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
50.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
50.0 · ranked #8 here · career best 76
Official mark (OR)
58 · last won off 63
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 30 tries · below market expectation (0.55)
Days since last run
61
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s)
Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 98.25% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
9thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 506thClass 5 · 5.0f · rated 3711thClass 6 · 5.0f · rated 358thClass 5 · 5.0f · rated 504thClass 5 · 5.2f · rated 62
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SERGEANT MAYER (IRE)best 76needs 62.3–662025-04-02 · TFR 64 · 5f · Good · C62025-04-12 · TFR 70 · 5.04f · Good · C62025-05-01 · TFR 67 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C62025-05-18 · TFR 73 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C62025-05-30 · TFR 64 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C62025-06-09 · TFR 76 · 5.1f · Good · C52025-06-30 · TFR 71 · 5.01f · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-10 · TFR 74 · 5.65f · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-06 · TFR 70 · 5.01f · Good · C52025-08-14 · TFR 69 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-30 · TFR 71 · 5f · Good · C52025-10-13 · TFR 62 · 5.19f · Gd/Frm · C52025-10-21 · TFR 50 · 5f · Slow · C52026-04-07 · TFR 35 · 5.01f · Gd/Sft · C62026-04-21 · TFR 37 · 5.01f · Good · C52026-05-18 · TFR 50 · 5.99f · Gd/Frm · C62 Apr 2518 May 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Nigel Tinkler · 915 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 6-7 company ✦32/27911.5%1.179/969.4%1.27
On turf39/5057.7%0.9112/1517.9%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 8-11 ✦28/3677.6%0.885/1015.0%0.62
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ripon (small sample)2/287.1%0.860/110.0%0.0
Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)2/336.1%0.90/110.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 76 at/around today's trip, clears the ~62.3 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 11
-0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph11th of 11
+0.42s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed5th of 11
98.2%
One-paced late
Stride length11th of 11
7.28 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
18 May 26Redcar5fGd/Frm9thTrue42.9 +0.1096.1+0.51
21 Apr 26Pontefract5fGood6thTrue40.1 -0.43100.4+0.44
7 Apr 26Pontefract5fGd/Sft11thFast early40.9 +0.2796.0+0.40
21 Oct 25Newcastle5fSlow8thTrue42.0 +0.3898.5+0.71
13 Oct 25Yarmouth5fGd/Frm4thFast early43.1 +0.0399.2+0.20
30 Aug 25Beverley5fGood4thFast early39.9 -0.5299.2+0.26
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.34par2f+0.36fast3f+0.16fast4f+0.43slow5f+0.48slow6f+0.94very slow
Timed runs 2025-08-30 to 2026-05-18. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
5lb below his last winning mark (58 today vs 63)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayImproving fast — last run rated 50, 9pts above his recent average of 40.7Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 10 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.52x market expectation)Lost roughly 2.3 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 3 here)
LTO comment
“in touch, weakened final 1f”
#9 MISTER SKY BLUE (IRE) MID FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 3 · OR 49 · Kaiya Fraser / Gemma Tutty
MARKET drifting 9.6 → 11
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−
46.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
46.7 · ranked #9 here · career best 66
Official mark (OR)
49 · last won off 57
Record at today's distance
1 win from 20 tries · below market expectation (0.33)
Days since last run
17
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 97.31% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
9thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 342ndClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 567thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 502ndClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 559thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 46
Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for MISTER SKY BLUE (IRE)best 66needs 62.3–662025-04-14 · TFR 60 · 6f · Good · C62025-05-04 · TFR 66 · 6.03f · Gd/Frm · C62025-05-19 · TFR 60 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C62025-06-09 · TFR 56 · 6f · Good · C52025-06-16 · TFR 61 · 5.83f · Gd/Sft · C62025-07-10 · TFR 62 · 5.83f · Good · C62025-08-02 · TFR 46 · 7.03f · Gd/Frm · C62025-08-18 · TFR 57 · 5.96f · Gd/Frm · C62025-09-22 · TFR 40 · 6.03f · Gd/Sft · C52025-10-09 · TFR 57 · 6f · Slow · C62025-11-18 · TFR 61 · 6f · Slow · C62025-12-05 · TFR 52 · 6f · Std/Slow · C62025-12-09 · TFR 50 · 6f · Slow · C62025-12-16 · TFR 46 · 6f · Slow · C62026-05-07 · TFR 55 · 5.99f · Good · C62026-05-26 · TFR 50 · 5.99f · Gd/Frm · C62026-06-10 · TFR 56 · 6.03f · Gd/Sft · C62026-07-01 · TFR 34 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C614 Apr 251 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Gemma Tutty · 506 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦20/2029.9%1.038/6412.5%1.45
At this time of year (Q3)14/13510.4%0.981/128.3%1.43
In Class 6-7 company13/10212.7%1.144/3013.3%1.34
In fields of 8-1119/2079.2%0.877/6311.1%1.27
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips11/9511.6%1.161/402.5%0.3
On turf23/21310.8%1.056/837.2%0.81
Too few runners to read reliably
Below their last winning mark (small sample)5/4012.5%1.20/90.0%0.0
At Ripon (small sample)3/1520.0%1.931/520.0%1.8
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 66 at/around today's trip, clears the ~62.3 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 11
+0.15 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 11
+0.11s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed10th of 11
97.3%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 11
7.84 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
1 Jul 26Thirsk6fGd/Frm9thTrue42.8 +0.8695.4+0.60
10 Jun 26Hamilton Park6fGd/Sft2ndFast early42.7 -0.1093.8-0.12
26 May 26Redcar5fGd/Frm7thTrue41.5 -0.01101.0-0.05
7 May 26Redcar5fGood2ndTrue41.5 -0.06100.1+0.00
16 Dec 25Newcastle6fSlow9thTrue40.6 +0.1697.5+0.12
9 Dec 25Newcastle6fSlow4thTrue41.4 +0.0896.0+0.14
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.59par2f+0.41fast3f+0.49par4f+0.65par5f+0.97slow6f+1.27very slow
Timed runs 2025-12-09 to 2026-07-01. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
8lb below his last winning mark (49 today vs 57)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayLost roughly 2.7 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“in touch, chased leader over 1f out, ran on”
#10 VON TROTTER MID
DRAW 7 · OR 60 · Billy Garritty / Michael & David Easterby
MARKET drifting 11 → 12
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−
43.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
43.3 · ranked #10 here · career best 71
Official mark (OR)
60 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 7 tries
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.9s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 97.55% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
6thClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 437thClass 5 · 5.0f · rated 3810thClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 4914thClass 3 · 5.0f · rated 292ndClass 4 · 5.0f · rated 70
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for VON TROTTERbest 71needs 62.3–662025-11-22 · TFR 64 · 6f · Slow · C52025-12-19 · TFR 71 · 4.97f · Std · C52026-03-13 · TFR 70 · 4.97f · Std · C42026-05-15 · TFR 29 · 5f · Good · C32026-06-05 · TFR 49 · 6f · Good · C52026-06-19 · TFR 38 · 5f · Good · C52026-06-27 · TFR 43 · 6f · Good · C422 Nov 2527 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael & David Easterby · 1227 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.9 on the exchange
Signature angle: keeping the same jockey
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)32/3638.8%0.92/355.7%0.66
Over 5-6f trips ✦40/4309.3%0.912/1458.3%0.82
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ripon (small sample)4/4010.0%0.944/1625.0%2.77
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 81 at/around today's trip, clears the ~62.3 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields11th of 11
-0.30 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 41.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 11
+0.02s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed8th of 11
97.5%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 11
7.73 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26York6fGood6thTrue42.8 +0.0094.3-0.05
19 Jun 26Redcar5fGood7thFast early41.6 -1.1698.5+0.07
5 Jun 26Thirsk6fGood10thFast early40.7 -0.3893.5+0.14
15 May 26York5fGood14thTrue41.7 -0.4994.8+0.02
13 Mar 26Southwell4fStd2ndTrue42.6 +0.06101.1-0.04
19 Dec 25Southwell4fStd2ndSlow early40.8 +0.16103.2+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.26fast2f+0.21fast3f+0.23par4f+0.39slow5f+0.98very slow6f+1.70very slow
Timed runs 2025-12-19 to 2026-06-27. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Drops in class todayStable cold this week — 1 wins from 12 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“outpaced, always behind”
#11 HURSTWOOD MID
DRAW 1 · OR 48 · Mark Winn / Peter Niven
MARKET backed 22 → 19
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−
43 FORMLAB FIGURE
FormLab Figure
43 · ranked #11 here · career best 67
Official mark (OR)
48 · last won off 54
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 35 tries · beats market expectation (1.21)
Days since last run
17
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.9s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 97.41% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
11thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 306thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 486thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 514thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 569thClass 6 · 6.0f · rated 47
Career sheet · last 18 months · 19 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for HURSTWOODbest 67needs 62.3–662025-01-21 · TFR 57 · 6f · Slow · C62025-02-01 · TFR 53 · 6f · Slow · C62025-02-20 · TFR 37 · 6f · Slow · C62025-03-06 · TFR 30 · 6f · Slow · C62025-05-17 · TFR 49 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C62025-05-29 · TFR 60 · 6f · Good · C62025-06-19 · TFR 51 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C62025-07-02 · TFR 65 · 6f · Good · C62025-07-23 · TFR 51 · 6.01f · Good · C62025-08-02 · TFR 60 · 6f · Good · C62025-09-27 · TFR 46 · 6f · Good · C62025-10-08 · TFR 61 · 6.08f · Soft · C62025-10-27 · TFR 53 · 5.99f · Gd/Sft · C62025-11-04 · TFR 57 · 5.99f · Good · C62026-04-18 · TFR 47 · 6f · Good · C62026-05-07 · TFR 56 · 5.99f · Good · C62026-05-28 · TFR 51 · 6f · Good · C62026-06-06 · TFR 48 · 6.01f · Gd/Frm · C62026-07-01 · TFR 30 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C621 Jan 251 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Peter Niven · 151 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Below their last winning mark1/714.3%1.911/520.0%2.22
On turf8/6013.3%1.622/1910.5%2.07
Over 5-6f trips12/6119.7%1.842/1513.3%1.88
In fields of 8-118/6711.9%1.272/2010.0%1.82
Too few runners to read reliably
At Ripon (small sample)1/119.1%1.00/10.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)3/3010.0%1.030/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 67 at/around today's trip, clears the ~62.3 demand
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 11
+0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 11
+0.10s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed9th of 11
97.4%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 11
7.69 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
1 Jul 26Thirsk6fGd/Frm11thTrue41.9 -0.0295.4+0.03
6 Jun 26Doncaster6fGd/Frm6thTrue41.2 -0.2497.6+0.16
28 May 26Ripon6fGood6thTrue42.2 +0.2194.8—
7 May 26Redcar5fGood4thTrue41.5 -0.0999.7+0.04
18 Apr 26Thirsk6fGood9thTrue41.1 +0.1598.8+0.16
4 Nov 25Redcar5fGood7thTrue42.4 +0.2498.2+0.10
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.58par2f+0.61par3f+0.72par4f+0.76par5f+1.11slow6f+1.44very slow
Timed runs 2025-11-04 to 2026-07-01. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
6lb below his last winning mark (48 today vs 54)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayProven over the trip (35 tries, beats market expectation at 1.21)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (2 from 11 here)Sectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“mid-division, effort 2f out, one paced”